STRATFOR: NATO Presses Russia on Another Front
STRATFOR's Global Intelligence Update
4/14/99
STRATFOR's Global Intelligence Update April 15, 1999 Summary:
NATO's campaign in Yugoslavia, waged against the fervent objections of Moscow, has once again driven Russia and NATO into opposing camps. NATO has also been pursuing relationships in the Caucasus and Central Asia, and surprisingly is continuing to actively do so even as it is attempting to stabilize relations with Russia over Kosovo.
Analysis:
Russia's Interfax news agency has cited Azerbaijani presidential administration sources as saying that Azerbaijani President Haidar Aliyev received personal messages on April 14 from U.S. President Bill Clinton and U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright. According to Interfax, the message from Clinton "contains a proposal on settling the Karabakh conflict," while Albright invited Aliyev to attend NATO's anniversary celebration later in April. Azerbaijan has been eagerly pursuing a relationship with -- if not membership in -- NATO, a campaign matched by the growing strategic alliance between Russia and Armenia. But while this strategic positioning is well underway, it is surprising that Clinton and Albright would personally fuel this standoff just now. Relations between NATO and Russia have been shattered by the Kosovo crisis, and efforts to mend those relations and find a solution to the crisis can only be hurt by increasing tension in the Caucasus.
We have thoroughly reported and analyzed the collapse of Russia's relations with NATO over the conflict in Kosovo on our Kosovo in Crisis web site (http://www.stratfor.com/kosovo/crisis/). Russia was not only infuriated when NATO ignored its objections prior to launching air strikes on Yugoslavia, but has come to view NATO's actions as a direct challenge to Russian national interests and security. The Russian journal Segodnya on April 10 described NATO as destroying the last outpost of Russian influence in Europe. But NATO's campaign against Russia does not stop in Yugoslavia, Segodnya argued, "Georgia and Azerbaijan do not want a Russian military presence anymore and are the most "advanced" countries in this respect, as far as the United States is concerned."
Azerbaijani officials had already announced on April 7 Aliyev's intention to attend NATO's 50th anniversary ceremonies. The officials told the newspaper Bilik Dunyasi that Aliyev was also expected while in the United States to hold talks with U.S. leaders on expanding bilateral cooperation. Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze has also announced his intention to attend NATO's anniversary ceremonies.
Azerbaijan and Georgia, along with Uzbekistan, opted out of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Collective Security Treaty earlier this month. Additionally, both Azerbaijan and Georgia refused to sign a CIS statement condemning NATO air strikes in Yugoslavia. In fact, Azerbaijani political parties, both in the opposition and the ruling coalition, have come out publicly in favor of NATO air strikes. Azerbaijan has even announced its intention to send 50 soldiers as part of a Turkish unit to participate in NATO peacekeeping operations in Bosnia, or perhaps in Kosovo once a settlement is reached.
Whether proactive or reactive, Azerbaijan has appealed for closer relations with NATO to counterbalance Russian relations with Armenia. Azerbaijan and Armenia are currently in shaky truce over the predominantly Armenian enclave of Nagorno Karabakh in Azerbaijan. While Russia has denied it is supplying arms directly to Armenia -- since arming combatants in an intra-CIS feud is forbidden -- it has deployed advanced S-300 surface to air missiles and MiG-29 fighters to Russian units in Armenia. Speaking in Armenia on April 13, Russian air force commander Colonel General Anatoly Kornukov announced that Armenia's air defense system and Russia's air force are "ready to embark on joint combat duty." For its part, Georgia has requested the departure of Russian army units guaranteeing a truce between Georgia and the breakaway region of Abkhazia. Georgia accuses Russia of siding with the Abkhaz separatists.
On March 19, Azerbaijan detained a Russian cargo plane carrying MiG fighters Baku claimed were bound for Yugoslavia. The Russian newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta interpreted this as little more than a show of loyalty to NATO. On March 20, Aliyev questioned Russian President Boris Yeltsin about Russian missile and jet shipments to Armenia. On March 23, a U.S. delegation led by Air Force Major General Charles Wax reportedly visited Azerbaijan, where they held talks with Azerbaijani Defense and Foreign Ministry officials and toured the Nasosnaya Air Base, which Azerbaijan has offered to the U.S., Turkey, and NATO. Nezavisimaya Gazeta argued that the tour of the air base by U.S. military planners indicated that the plan to establish a NATO base in Azerbaijan was "practically decided."
Demonstrating the inseparability of economics and politico- military strategy in the region, contracts worth $2 billion between Azerbaijan's state oil company SOCAR, Exxon, and Mobil for Caspian oilfield development are scheduled to be signed during Aliyev's visit to the U.S. Additionally, Turkey and the Azerbaijan International Operating Company (AIOC), the international consortium developing Azerbaijan's Caspian oil resources, are reportedly nearing agreement on the construction of a pipeline from Baku to Ceyhan Turkey. The AIOC had shied away from the pipeline route -- backed by Washington since it avoids both Russia and Iran -- due to its high cost. But Richard Morningstar, the U.S. special envoy for Caspian energy, has announced that, "We're getting closer in bridging commercial and political realities." NATO even recently hosted a conference on Caspian ecology in Venice, and the Azerbaijani press suggested that NATO might finance a program to defend the Caspian ecology.
Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Ukraine, who signed a defense protocol on March 18, will reportedly hold military exercises on April 16 in Georgia. The exercises will take place under the auspices of NATO's Partnership for Peace program, and will involve preparing for possible emergencies along the Baku-Supsa oil pipeline.
Finally, if NATO entanglements and competition over Caspian oil was not enough, Russia must now be concerned about a possible Azerbaijan-Chechnya connection. ITAR-TASS reported on April 13 that a train car load of military uniforms bound for Chechnya from Lithuania via Azerbaijan had been stopped by authorities at the Dagestan border. As Russia traces the sources and facilitators of this shipment, it will certainly increase tension in the Caucasus.
Russia has voiced its displeasure at growing NATO influence in the Caucasus. In a direct reference to the Kosovo crisis and a veiled allusion to Azerbaijan's relations with NATO, Russian Ambassador to Azerbaijan Aleksandr Blokhin warned on April 5 that, "If NATO is not taking into account Russia, which has 2,500 nuclear warheads and fairly serious armed forces, then the bombings will create a dangerous precedent of permissiveness in relation to other, especially smaller countries. Those who seek to engage with NATO today must understand this." "Azerbaijan's cooperation with NATO, especially in light of events in Yugoslavia, negatively affects Russian-Azeri relations," he added.
Armenia has declared the deployment of Turkish or other NATO forces to Azerbaijan "impossible." Regarding Armenia's relations with Russia, Armenian Defense Minister Vazgan Sarkasian said April 6 that, "The CIS, in particular Russia, have started taking the CIS Collective Security Treaty... more seriously. Up til now, they have been complaining only about NATO reinforcing its positions near the CIS and Russian border. Now it seems as though they have decided to talk less and do more, that is to say, to reinforce their positions."
Russia continues to build up forces in Armenia. It has also launched naval exercises in the Caspian, which Baku has interpreted as being directed at Azerbaijan, though Azerbaijani Foreign Policy Advisor Vafa Guluzade has said that "the pressure was not so great that we had to go down on bended knees or change our policy."
Washington and NATO are playing the great game in the Caucasus and Central Asia, without a doubt. They are also feuding with Russia over the situation in Yugoslavia. The wider game is only beginning, but at present NATO is attempting to win Moscow over to a peace initiative in Yugoslavia. It is therefore striking that Washington would choose to increase tension in the Caucasus at the same time it is trying to decrease it in Europe.
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