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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: StockOperator who wrote (11062)	4/14/1999 11:51:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Due to volatility in the market today, My weekly charts are now updated at homestead.com under the daily chart link of L3akaL3. The weekly charts are near the bottom. Note that Latin America, Japan, and Mexico index is at downward trendline now with sell signals. Hmmmm As for missing the run up, the stocks I like and would have played are still down from when the DOW was 1500 points lower. ( I guess I am a worse stock picker than even I thought). I have many stocks I track that have not missed earnings, had their expectations lowered and are growing by leaps and bounds yet their stock prices are well below where they were months ago. I still see improvements in the over all market and today's action was in fact healthy and what I wanted to happen. The high flyers needed to get cut and the value stocks need to get bought. On the other hand, as Don pointed out, Alcoa is not an internet stock and should not jump 14% in one day. NBR tonight stated that Alcoa alone moved the DOW up 20 points. IN other words take away that one rise and the DOW actually closed Down. I still can not ignore my TRIN chart that showed the TRIN due to rise thus the market needing to pullback. If the cycle continues as mormal, this pullback should last a few more days before the TRIN chart reverses back down thus allowing the market to resume the rally. There were also some serious support lines and forks broken today which from a TA standpoint hurt future rallies in those stocks and sector indexes. I am not bearish but I am extreme short term bearish, mid term guarded bullish, long term befuddled. Good Luck, Lee

To: StockOperator who wrote (11062)	4/15/1999
From: Guy Gordon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

"By the time the avg. investor finally gets the green light to get in - the stocks are usually in their final blowoff stages and the smart money is distributing their shares and realizing fantastic gains." How do you account for the fact that 80% of mutual funds fail to beat the S&P 500? Aren't they this "smart money" you're talking about?

To: StockOperator who wrote (11062)	4/15/1999 12:35:00 AM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

StockOperator: Whether you prefer to call Mr. Market a Specialist, MM, or Smart Money really has no bearing on things. He or she (sorry ladies) is the 800lb gorilla that we face every day when we turn on our computers. Well, I have been basing my analysis not only on TA, but also on the premise that the Market is manipulated since the mid eighties. Underlying all the analysis I do is a constant watch to identify the "big boys" intent. I have stated such many times on this thread. Accumulation and distribution is often camouflaged. Although, in this “new era” of small investors, I have noticed “they” often put out less effort than before to conceal. Of course, one must realize that camouflaged manipulation is not only used to keep folks out of the Market at bottoms or before breakouts, but to also lure them in at Market tops. If one can identify the signs on the trail, one can follow the “big boys” coat tails. As you mentioned divergence (confusion) is often part of the plan. To All: I have my database up and running with Dial Data again, but I have been unable to access the extended histories I wanted to. So, it was back to the CD for now. My charts are posted and are now located under the Daily Charts menu by my alias. I also decided to get back to basics, the Dow Charts are theoretical again. Regards, LG

To: StockOperator who wrote (11062)	4/15/1999 8:10:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

StockOperator, We are in agreement that there are plenty of mixed signals. Lets put a perspective into it. The NAZ dropped about 120 points off of its intraday highs, and closed about 80 points from its previous days close. Using the factor of 4.15, the NAZ dropped 500 DOW points off the intraday highs and about 330 DOW points from the previous days highs. On the other hand about 5 DOW, and the TRANSPORTS stocks ran very hard to the upside. Who benefited yesterday. Even with my CLASS SELL signals, I would have not thought that the NAZ and INTERNETs would sell that hard. And who knew that a few DOW stocks/TRAN would run so hard. You are correct that those who did not participate in the 1500 point runup lost out of gains, but thats not a legitimate reason that the market will continue up specificly from here, not saying that you said that but many analysts/media are using that arguement. Lets talk now from this point onwards specificly. With all these mixed signals at these high levels what is the prudent thing to do right now. Of course that would depend on time horizons. My CLASS SELL signals for the SPX/OEX/NAZ/DOT has more than fulfilled its minimum requirements already, and only the DOW has not yet. I still have specific mixed signals as to whether this specific short-term(1-5 days) pullback will be small or large. Hey since the SPX/OEX/NAZ/DOT already fulfilled the minimum it could run right from here. seeya

To: StockOperator who wrote (11062)	4/15/1999 5:49:00 PM
From: Sonny Blue	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

>> My gut tells me that today's action in the NAZ was nothing more than another fakeout before the breakout.<< Bingo, SO! Just another round of profit taking. It happens before.

To: StockOperator who wrote (11062)	4/19/1999 3:19:00 PM
From: StockOperator	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

The markets are always the craziest when you're gone. Unfortunately, I did not get a chance to post over the weekend. My wife and I have been house hunting of late and I'm happy to say that we received an accepted offer yesterday. So I've been a little busy. But I wanted to comment on the market's here. In one of my last posts I wrote I would not initiate any new tech positions until I see firming or reversals in some of the key players I wrote that because much of weakness of last week was predominately in the tech sector. The broader market including the DOW, Trannies, and RUT were very strong. At this stage of the game that statement still applies. I think the main point to remember is that most of the avgs have seen huge moves already (especially the NAZ). The major players on the NAZ have a lot of room to back and fill when considering the overall bullish trend of the market. So I am not willing to say that this is the beginning of a sizeable correction. As a matter of fact the the charts (imo) are not positioned for a serious correction yet. The same thing applies to the time frame of this pull-back. Once again I think it will be wise to see how this day plays out to see where things close. Besides, I just took a look at my chart, I don't know how many of you realized it but the DOW has moved roughly 1000 pts in the month of April. Think about it 1000 pts with almost two weeks to go. I am sure that is some sort of record. So of course it plays to be defensive in light of that. How these markets retrace is what I will be playing close attention to. Good luck trading. SO