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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rhet0ric who wrote (24040)	4/15/1999 10:03:00 AM
From: Richard Habib	Respond to of 213177

Rhetoric, the market is not wrong or right. It just is. My interpretation of how I thought the market would evaluate Apple's results appears to be about right. Once again no wrongs or rights, just buy or sell opportunities. In this case, I didn't believe the results would move the market that much so I've been buying calls looking for a move by July and avoiding short term calls. Other earnings I've played the rise to earnings. Why do I think Apple wouldn't move unless top line growth was good?? Because, I think the street sees Apple as roughly fairly valued with their current info. Intel has double digit growth. It is priced in the stock. Hence unlike Adam, I avoided Intel assuming it would fall to its traditional PEG levels which it may or may not do. Dell has double digit growth. It is priced in the stock. Dell in the past has been a short for me although its no longer compelling either way for me. HWPs CEO has stated he expects double digit growth in the computer sector. HWP and the other complex boxmakers like IBM, CPQ, etc. are difficult to evalutate and I steer clear of them as investments. Don't compare Apple to broken stocks like CPQ - its not useful. GTW provides the best comparison to Apple as we are all aware. The question you have to ask yourself is whether GTW will fall or not. I don't have a clear opinion so its not as compelling as Apple which I'm sure will rise by July. I could go through my reasons why the street evaluates Apple where it does but I already did. My only commment is to look at Q4 - project single digit top line growth and ask yourself how much the earnings could increase. While your at it, consider tax 15-20%. My valuation is somewhat different. The diffence determines whether I buy or not. I'd rather spend my time crunching Japan numbers. Hopefully you don't have short term calls so why worry about it any further. Rich