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Microcap & Penny Stocks : Benz Energy (BZG.V) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Casey who wrote (154)	4/17/1999 9:37:00 AM
From: Ed Ajootian	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 272

Casey, Thanks for your thoughts. The Fortenberry is looking a lot better than it was a few weeks ago but we are still not totally out of the woods. Just as you can't count a chicken before it hatches, you can't count a well until its' been logged & cased. But to extend the above analogy, there are some very discernable cracks showing up on that eggshell at this point and it is now just a matter of time before the chick comes out. I'm told we will find out next week, a lot more about what's gonna happen & when. It is over-simplifying the situation to look at the current debt picture (which I agree is bleak) and then use that as a reason not to buy the stock. They are within a month of getting the new pipeline set up in Oakvale Dome, which will dramatically increase production. They are within a month or so of selling half their interest Oakvale Dome for $9 mm. Several parties have expressed strong interest and Benz is now considering splitting the interest being sold into two pieces in order to make it available to more companies. There are a lot more companies that can come up with $4.5 mm than $9 mm these days. Benz is not in default of any debt payments and I have no concerns about them becoming in default. The stock would have to quadruple from here to reach the price at which the convertible bonds are convertible into stock (C$1.70). When convertible securities are that far out of the money it is absurd to consider them in any fully diluted calcs. IMO. As far as I'm concerned these convertible bonds are not much different than straight bank debt at this point. If they in fact issue 12 mm shares of stock for US$5 mm, (ie @ C$.60 a share or so), I would view that very favorably and as a strong vote of confidence. I would suspect that the stock price would run up to the $.60 mark on such an announcement. Not sure what you are trying to say about the significance (or lack thereof) of the Fortenberry. Lets say it comes in at a sustainable production rate of 15 mmcf a day. Are you saying that that will still not be enough to save this outfit? I would beg to differ with you on that one. Of course, as each day goes by without good news of progress in the field, I agree that the stock will continue to tank. This is just human nature. But IMO if Benz can get the well cased the stock will appreciate significantly from here. This is what the O&G microcaps is all about IMO. Has nothing to do with commodity prices, etc. Just all about drilling holes in the ground and seeing if you get lucky.