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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stephen who wrote (11101)	4/15/1999 11:52:00 AM
From: Stephen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Given that quite a few of the recent upgrades were obviously momentum driven, is it now likely that with the sentiment shifting, that there will be a number of downgrades ... thereby fueling any downturn ??. Just a thought .... Stephen

To: Stephen who wrote (11101)	4/15/1999 11:56:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Stephan, >>>>> I wonder if someone could answer a conundrum I have. If adv/dec is a lagging indicator, then does the current improvement mean the market has strength, or because of longtime weakness, do the market indices have to reflect that weakness before the improved stats kick-in ?? . <<<<<< My position is that the A/D could be either leading or lagging. If you check last SEPT the A/D did not drop as much as when it approached 7400 in early OCT, as it did in SEPT when it hit 7400 the first time. So in that case and the way I use it, it was a leading indicator. I dont look at absolute numbers, but look for the rate of change. For example the A/D remains flat as the market run us. Even though it is poor it becomes the norm and can continue that way for some time as it has now. But lets say it starts to diverge to the downside where the market is rising at the same rate as it was previously but the A/D starts to deteriorate at a faster rate. To me that would imply that imply that the market could turn in the future, so the A/D, in that sense is a leading indicator. I follow the NEW HIGHs/LOWs more closely and the same applys there. I look for rate of change(DELTA FACTORs) not absolute numbers. seeya