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To: stan s. who wrote (42256)	4/15/1999 9:44:00 PM
From: stan s.	Respond to of 95453

Brief mention of Petronius here, RESEARCH ALERT- ING Barings sees Texaco overvalued NEW YORK, April 15 (Reuters) - ING Barings on Thursday reaffirmed expectations that U.S. oil major Texaco Inc's (NYSE:TX <http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=tx&d=t> - news </n/t/tx.html>) profits will be pressured in 1999-2000 by domestic oil/gas output declines and weaker Latin American downstream profit. However, analyst Mark Gilman said in a research report that despite the bleak near-term earnings outlook, which he also based on sluggish heavy oil prices, the longer term upstream outlook was improving. -- Says ''Despite substantial underperformance in 1998, and only modest relative outperformance so far this year, Texaco shares remain in our view, modestly overvalued.'' -- Estimates Texaco earnings per share to stand at $1.40 this year, ''a projected decline of 22 percent from already depressed 1998 operating earnings of $1.78 per share.'' -- For the year 2000, ''we have established a preliminary estimate of $2.05 per share. The increase is largely attributale toan assumed rebound in (oil) commodity prices to $16.00 per barrel(spot WTI)...'' -- ''We are forecasting a 5.3 percent average decline in Texaco's domestic oil/gas output in the 1999-2000 period.'' This is attributable to many factors, ''including absence of major new field development projects, delay associated with the rebuild of the Petronius topside, above average field declines associated with Texaco's short reserve life and the Gulf Coast oriented U.S. production base (particular natural gas).'' -- Says weaker Latin American downstream profits expected, due mainly to the economic turmoil in Brazil (estimated to account for 70 percent of regional profit). The region's contribution, over 50 percent of the company's 1998 adjusted international downstream earnings (23 percent of consolidated EPS), is projected to decline by approximately 25 percent in 1999, and by an additional 6 percent in 2000. -- Says Texaco's upstream results not expected to reflect the full benefit of the anticipated recovery in crude oil prices due to the company's heavy crude orientation. -- But says he was ''highly encouraged'' by Texaco's deepwaterNigerian discovery (Agbami) and by the year-end 1998 booking of significant incremental oil reserves at Monterey (in the Midway Sunset field). Texaco shares were up 1-3/8 at 57-3/8 in New York in afternoon trade.