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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: VLAD who wrote (20484)	4/15/1999 2:29:00 PM
From: Zebra 365	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23519

OT Pfizer and Watson Pfizer 1st-Qtr Net Up 18%; Shares Drop on 2Q Concerns The trading halt was due to order imbalance, also note the FDA has 52 reported incidences of drug misprescription on Celebrex due to confusion on the name, they will likely have to change the name like Prilosec had to change from Losec, its original name. New York, April 15 (Bloomberg) -- Pfizer Inc., the No. 2 U.S. drugmaker, said its first-quarter profit rose 18 percent and suggested second-quarter profit might fall below analysts' estimates, sending shares down 11 percent. Net income rose to $815 million, or 62 cents a share, from $692 million, or 53 cents, a year earlier. Results matched the average estimate of analysts polled by First Call Corp. Revenue rose 29 percent to $3.93 billion, with $193 million in first- quarter Viagra sales. Although Pfizer is selling more new pills such as the anti- impotence drug Viagra, the company surprised analysts with its own ''single-digit'' estimate for second-quarter profit. Analysts had expected an increase of about 20 percent as Pfizer helps market Monsanto Co.'s new painkiller, Celebrex, a drug expected to top $1 billion in annual sales quickly because it may be gentler on the stomach than aspirin and ibuprofen. ''Pfizer has a reputation for walking on water and the first quarter shows they may be getting a little wet,'' said Mike Krensavage, an analyst with Brown Brothers Harriman, who has a ''neutral'' rating on Pfizer. Pfizer, based in New York, fell 15 5/8 to 129 in early afternoon trading as drug stocks fell for a second day on concerns that Medicare reform and new managed-care policies will slow growth in profits. ''It's not an unexpected over-reaction,'' said Corey Davis, an analyst with Hambrecht & Quist, which has a ''neutral'' rating on the company. ''Fundamentally, nothing's different about Pfizer today.'' In the second quarter, Pfizer will face a comparison to the year-earlier period when Viagra's unprecedented introduction gave the drug $411 million in sales. When the publicity for Viagra died down, sales slowed. The drug had $193 million in sales in the first quarter of 1999, even as it was sold in new markets such as members of the European Union and Japan. Some analysts may have expected the success of Monsanto's Celebrex to compensate for the decline in Viagra. The company ''could have guided people better but it's not really Pfizer's strategy,'' Davis said. Today, Pfizer said its second-quarter earnings would rise 9 percent or less. The company earned 46 cents a share in the second quarter of 1998 and had been expected to earn 56 cents, the average estimate of analysts polled by First Call. Pfizer Chief Financial Officer David Shedlarz said the company is comfortable with analysts' estimates that put its 1999 per-share profit at $2.40 to $2.50. That represents a 20 percent to 25 percent increase over 1998, he said. The average First Call estimate for Pfizer's 1999 per-share profit is $2.49. Among U.S. drugmakers, Pfizer is second only to Merck & Co. in sales. Counting U.S. sales alone, Pfizer is the top drugmaker.>>> Folks, if you want a drugmaker whose fortunes will rise in the next two years, check out Watson Pharm, WPI. They are a major generic manufacturer and trading for about half the P/E multiple of PFE. Multiple drugs in the pipelines and starting to do extended release drugs that are coming off patent. They are coming out with a generic nicotine gum this summer, they also bought Thera-Tech and earnings on that will not be accretive until 2000. They are increasing their own line of branded drugs which means increasing margins. Also, they were just added to the S&P 500 last week. No more from me on this OT subject. Zebra See my next post for Vivus story.

To: VLAD who wrote (20484)	4/15/1999 2:51:00 PM
From: Zebra 365	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23519

Notes from the front line: I just saw one of my older (not elderly) patients yesterday. This is one where I treat three generations of the family, and have for over a decade. He had asked me about Viagra a few months ago. I said, "no way", (he has had a 4-vessel coronary bypass a year ago) but I did give him a Rx for 500ug MUSE and a refill on his Nitroglycerine tablets. In fact I wrote them both on the same prescription (try that with Brand X!!). Also gave him a Rx for Actis but he never got it filled because it was out of stock. Well, he told me yesterday that it was working great. I told him there would be one out later that was smaller and didn't need refrigeration, he wasn't interested, he's happy with this. BTW, I also saw his wife the same day for followup on her medical needs. She thanked me, too, for the "Moose" prescription as she called it. These people are in their early seventies and very active (and a little more active now with the help of MUSE). Right now there is no other treatment out there that would have safely worked in this situation. That is why I'm long this stock, because this market niche is there for the indeterminate future. If we can just match this product with good promotion and marketing, we will be looking at $10 in the rear view mirror. Zebra