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To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (31845)	4/15/1999 3:30:00 PM
From: long-gone	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116770

noticing the activity? H*** I've been living it hour by hour when not looking for a job....

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (31845)	4/15/1999 7:34:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Respond to of 116770

POLL-US current account gap to skyrocket into 2000 By Dawn Xavier NEW YORK, April 15 (Reuters) - The U.S. current account deficit should widen substantially over the next two years, as Americans continue a buying spree of foreign goods while battered world economies keep U.S. exports at bay, economists said. A quarterly Reuters survey of 15 analysts showed the current account gap was expected to widen to $276.3 billion on average in calendar year 1999, surpassing 1998's record-breaking deficit of $233.45 billion. The deficit was then expected to reach an annual figure of $285.2 billion in 2000. In goods and services, the trade gap was expected to widen to $257.4 billion in calendar year 1999, well beyond the $168.59 billion recorded last year. From there, it was expected to swell to $273.8 billion in calendar year 2000. ''The consumers of America are on a consumption binge, and what they're buying of course is the cheapest-priced products they can,'' said Brian Fabbri, chief North American economist at Paribas Corp. Fabbri said the demand for U.S. exports has been falling even faster than imports have increased, a bad combination with the stagnation in growth overseas. ''Whether we look at Japan and Asia or Europe, or Latin America, most other places apart from North America have either had disappointing growth or no growth at all,'' he added. Economists agreed that the export problems could be bottoming out, as evidenced by recent economic developments. The European Central Bank (ECB) cut its main refinancing rate by 50 basis points on April 8, a move that economists said could help lift growth in Europe and lead to a gradual pickup in U.S. exports to that continent. Chris Rupkey, senior financial economist at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, said the damage Brazil's economy sustained after its currency devaluation earlier this year did not spill over to other large Latin American trading partners, such as Mexico. Rupkey said the outlook for Asia has improved somewhat as well, with signs that the region may already be recovering quite well from the financial crisis. ''We have hopes that Japan will start to emerge from its recession later this year, or at least the year after,'' Rupkey noted. But the trade gap with China remains a problem and a major source of discussion during China's efforts to join the World Trade Organization. The U.S. trade gap with China hit $4.88 billion in January, now surpassing Japan as the largest contributor to the trade deficit. But overall, economists said if it weren't for the strength of the attractive investment environment in the United States, the trade imbalance could be much more destabilizing. ''People in foreign countries get dollars when we buy their merchandise, but they aren't the least bit concerned about investing them back in the U.S.,'' said Carol Stone, director & deputy chief econ at Nomura Securities International. ''So the financing for our current account deficit comes very easily.'' The poll was conducted the week of April 5. For individual quarterly and annual forecasts, or for further information on the Reuters quarterly U.S. economic survey, double-click on the following codes: Key to surveys, participants, definitions...... International Trade............................ Current Account................................ Additional inquiries should be directed to Elizabeth Lazarowitz or Dawn Xavier, 212-859-1660. biz.yahoo.com