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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t2 who wrote (20584)	4/15/1999 4:26:00 PM
From: Sir Francis Drake	Respond to of 74651

I made several posts here, comparing MSFT behaviour from last year around this time - tax season. I thought that there is a chance that because of the unique nature of this period of time, similiar price action might be seen this year(otherwise history is not always the best guide). MSFT declined on April 13, 14 of 98, but climbed on April 15 98. Thus far, MSFT has also declined April 13, 14, and climbed today. I am happy with this - I traded MSFT very nicely today, based on that assumption. However, what about the future? Last year, MSFT declined on April 16 - will history repeat? Up to this point, I followed last year's pattern. From this point, I will make a departure, however. I don't believe MSFT will decline tomorrow, because April 16 this year falls on a Friday, while last year it fell more in the middle of the week. The option activity (dominant calls) is positive, and that's an indication of a usually bullish Friday expiration activity. Another thing I like about today's action, is that paradoxically it didn't close on the day's high, just close to it. I particularly like the fact that it closed below 89. That means, there is room for MSFT to climb toward 90. The other bullish indictor would have been a close above 90-91 - that would have meant that the resistance at 90 has been broken. If it is not broken - as it wasn't today (high of 89 7/8), then the other bullish option is for it to fall low enough below 90 to give it room to take a run at 90. Too far low, would indicate weakness. But 88s on high volume (compared to the last few trading sessions), is perfect. It will be very volatile, to be sure (due to options expiry), and techs are under rotation attack from institutional money, so a lot is up in the air. But, I place my bet on MSFT going up tomorrow. The upgrade didn't hurt - but longer term (this year), I'm a bit worried by the MSFT, as I indicated earlier. It may break 100, but I am afraid, MSFT has seen most of it's gains for the year. I wouldn't be surprised to see MSFT below 100 by the end of the year (especially with the stupid Y2K hype scaring the market later this year - folks may take money out of the market). I hope I'm wrong (I'm holding a huge chunk of MSFT in my long-term portfolio - I've held it for years, and I don't want to sell). Ladies and Gentlemen - place your bets, the race is on! Good luck to all softie investors and traders!