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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rkrw who wrote (2347)	4/15/1999 5:48:00 PM
From: Biomaven	Respond to of 10280

rkrw, My memory is that the "straight" Allegra is expected to be about 2/3 of the total. Allegra worldwide sales in 1998 were around 850m DM, so US sales must have been well under $400m. If we grant total US sales of $600m in 2001, then we get $400m of the non-coformululated version, or about $30m a year in royalties at the 8% figure that is quoted, not $50m. I do agree that this is still pretty significant, and more than I remembered when I wrote the previous post. My main point though is that it doesn't undermine the rest of SEPR's portfolio. I do want to emphasize that I have heard anything at all about the arbitration one way or the other. Given that the SEC is already looking into the trading surrounding the Prozac deal, I would actually be surprised if this latest weakness was actually a leak of bad news. More likely it is just an institution unloading, magnified by the weak performance of the big pharmas over the last few days. This high volatility might actually encourage SEPR to split, hoping that an increased float might decrease the volatility. Peter