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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: accountclosed who wrote (56203)	4/15/1999 8:43:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 132070

AR, The oddest thing I have found is the way the Dow is leading, which makes some sense with cyclicals strong. But the Dow is always criticized as out of date, and here it is zippety-doo-dahing past the Nasdaq like it's standing still, which Nasdaq fans wish it had been doing. I see no future in the love of cyclicals this late in an economic bubble. Since the inbalanced economy has ignored investment in production for investment in financial assets, these cos. are in fairly bad shape. And, for many of them, their stocks never really reflected the lack of capital investment or the outlook for no pricing power. The auto cos. are the ones that really give me a chuckle. Their "renewed strength" has everything to do with excess credit being generated to non creditworthy borrowers. The rising bond rates and the rising spreads between corporates and Treasuries will make this a flash in the pan expansion. I am not buying puts on the cyclicals only because most of them are real cos. with dividends and earnings and employees and all that old pair of dimes stuff. And the fact that the techs and the financials are far more overvalued. But I don't think the great cyclical rally will last more than a couple of weeks.