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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jay Nitschke who wrote (4893)	4/15/1999 10:14:00 PM
From: Peter Church	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10309

Thanks for the explanations. H&Q attributed the 35% drop in share price last January to the CFO's mention that the 4Q99 looked "backend loaded". I looked through the WIND INDEX to find some insights into the hockey stick effect which Ron Abelmann has tried hard to smooth down. My impression is that there is some backlog management and that the accounting for the quarter is somewhat flexible. This last quarter seemed to have less flexibility due to shortfalls in visibility. We won't know if that is a temporary lapse or a new trend for another quarter or two. H&Q said the problem is due to MSFT pushing into the space and INTS making a comeback, increasing competition. We haven't had much discussion of INTS recently. Any opinions? The posts are: Hockey Stick, Deferred Revenue 610, 2181, 2186, 2192, 2197, 2198, 4175, 4179, 4183,

To: Jay Nitschke who wrote (4893)	4/16/1999 2:05:00 PM
From: Ronald Paul	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10309

WIND has made it clear for years that they avoid and discourage backend loading pitfalls. They are known not to succumb to discounts of any form under pressure of making a quota. If customers have tried to put the squeeze on WIND in this fashion, they will soon discover that they simply delayed for no appreciable discounts. This may cause one quarter to become backend loaded but is likely not to be repeated by the same customer and sends a message to the industry IMO. All backend loading is not necessarily due to this type of game playing. A case in point is the slip of a release, such as was just announced. Something similar to this may be at the root of the backend nature of last quarter. It may not be their official policy, but WIND's success in avoiding the hocky stick has contributed to the smoothed out nature of their financials, quarter over quarter, 20+ consecutive quarters running. Not a bad track record and speaks well of management IMO.