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Biotech / Medical : PFE (Pfizer) How high will it go? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Daniel Meyers who wrote (7405)	4/15/1999 11:08:00 PM
From: BigKNY3	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9523

The Peabody Mini-Report: 4/15/99 The PRN Mini-Peabody Report is intended to foster conversation on the PFEr Board. Comments are welcome and encouraged. Invest only after conducting your own research. Have PFun! BigKNY3 __________________________________________________________ PFE Stats (4/15/99): There has never been a day like this in PFE history...Dow up 51and PFE down 10%. PFE Versus the Dow- Intraday quicken.com DOW JONES: Close: 10,463 +51 An all-time Dow High PFE - PFIZER INC Last Price: 130 at 16:31 Change: Down 14 5/8 (-10.11%) Possibly the largest one day point drop in PFE history High: 142 15/16 Low: 127 7/8 at 12:51 Pending Peabody Valley Open: 142 Previous Close: 144 5/8 on 4/14 Volume: 15,392,100 Monster volume..... highest in over a year 30-Day Avg. Volume: 2,466,000 Shares Outstanding: 1,293,175,000 52-Week High: 150.12 52-Week Low: 86 Beta: 0.93 Yield: 0.50% P/E Ratio: 51.0 EPS: 2.55 _____________ The Peabody Model -Click here for a summary of the principles behind the Peabody Model. Short-Term PFE Trend: Moving Higher from the Peabody Valley (4/15/99) PFE blasted through the target Peabody Valley of 133.31. Accordingly, Da Model shifts from Neutral with an upward bias to "Moving Higher". Target Peabody Peak: The last Peabody Peak reached only 3 days ago on Monday, 4/12/99 (150.13) has been confirmed. The new target Peabody Peak is 148.25 (+14.0%) by 5/17/99. The Peabody Peak strike price is $138.11 (+6.2%). Target Peabody Valley: If the Model is wrong, PFE will move down to a new Peabody Valley of $121.48 (-6.6%). Predicted PFE Level: At the current record Dow high level of 10,4463, the predicted PFE price is 150.83..... Accordingly, PFE is 13.8% underpriced as compared to historical Dow and PFE trends. This is the highest underpricing of PFE in Da Model's history. Da Short-term PForecast (4/15/99) PFE: 130.00 Dow: 10,463: Friday is a key day for the short-term direction of PFE. Analysts will issue their reports on what they feel today's EPS report really means. The price action and over-reaction were similar to the reaction to the 3 Qt 1998 EPS Report on 10/14/99. PFE recovered from a 7% intraday sell-off with the analysts' maintaining their strong PFE support. If there are morning downgrades expect another drop of 3-5 points. If the analysts hold their position, PFE could climb climb 4-6 points. The high volume and intraday price spread is strongly indicative of a classic Valley. Moreover, the 14.8% decline from the Peabody Peak almost matches the average 14.1% Peak to Valley decline from the previous 39 Peabody Valleys since 1990. Although all PFEr feel short-term pain today, as a long-term holder, I actually get excited about the opportunity to buy PFE at a discount! If PFE drops again, Mr. Peabody will pull the trigger again. Da Gut Feel: There were really no real surprises in today's report and PFE Pfundamentals are the same as last Monday. After another bout of profit-taking in the am, PFE will rebound strongly on Friday as buyers come back in with PFE analysts' support. As noted on 4/10/99, it has been a particularly exciting week!!!! Suggested PFE Buying Range: $122 to $132 (4/15/99) The Peabody Portfolio: 100 shares added today @ 129.38 (+86.91%) The Peabody Portfolio consists of 30 PFE purchase recommendations listed on the PFEr Board since August 14, 1996. The Portfolio has purchased 4,600 PFE shares at an average price of $69.61 (only 3.5% off the subsequent next PFE Valleys). Today's purchase of 100 shares was the first buy opportunity in 3 months. # PFE purchases since 8/14/96: 30 % of purchases in the black: 100% # PFE shares purchased: 4,600 Average PFE purchase price: $69.61 Annualized return: 69.7% Current return: 86.7% # PFE purchases since 1/01/99: 3 % of purchases in the black: 100% # PFE shares purchased: 300 Average PFE purchase price: $118.8 Annualized return: 37.7% Current return: 9.4% Date............#..........Purchase Purchased...Shares...Price 8/14/96:..... 200 ........$36.38 10/25/96:....200 .........$40.44 12/4/96:......200..........$41.69 12/12/96:.....200.........$40.50 12/16/96:.....200.........$40.44 12/31/96:....200..........$41.50 1/2/97:........200.........$40.94 1/28/97: ......200..........$42.38 2/28/97:.......200...........$45.69 3/24/97:.......200...........$44.88 3/27/97:.......200...........$42.81 3/31/97:........200..........$42.56 8/8/97:..........200..........$55.13 4/16/98:........200...........$97.00 4/27/98:........200...........$113.00 5/7/98:..........200...........$107.50 5/15/98:.........100..........$105.00 5/27/98 :........100 .........$101.75 7/06/98 :........100 .........$106.00 7/29/98 :........100 .........$110.50 8/05/98 :........100 .........$104.00 8/07/98 :........100 .........$102.63 8/11/98..........100..........$100.00 9/01/98..........100..........$97.63 10/06/98.........100..........$94.00 10/09/98.........100..........$89.00 10/14/98.........100..........$89.50 01/10/99.........100........$117.00 01/12/99.........100........$110.25 04/15/99..........100........$129.38 Total:............4,600.........$69.61 ______________________________________________________ Peabody Peaks & Valleys: Updated 4/15/99 Listed below is an updated summary of the Peabody Peaks and Valleys since 1/04/90. The columns include the following data: - PFE prices - % change since the previous Peabody Valley or Peak - # of days from the last Peabody Valley or Peak - # of high volume days associated with the Peabody Valley or Peak - predicted next Peabody Valley or Peak using the Model - difference between the predicted Peabody price and the actual price . ___________________________________________________ ................................................................................ Predicted .........................................% Chg... # Days..High Vol..Peabody....% Diff ...............................PFE.....Last........Last....Days ....Next Pred..Peabody/ Peak/Valley.. Date...Price...Vall/Pk....Val/Pk. W/ Date...Vall/Pk....Actual 1....Peak.....1/4/90....9.06.................................. 2....... 6.92........1.5% 2....Valley...2/26/90...6.81.....-24.8%..... 53........12......11.31.......19.0% 3....Peak.... 7/31/90...9.50......39.4%.....155.......21........7.31....... -8.7% 4....Valley...8/23/90...8.00.....-15.8%..... 23..........1.......12.61 .....-41.3% 5....Peak.....2/30/91..21.50...168.8%... 494 .........9.......18.07...... 4.9% 6....Valley...2/19/92...17.22...-19.9%......51..........8.......22.76...... 19.2% 7....Peak.....2/27/92...19.10....10.9% .......8 .........2.......15.91...... -6.4% 8...Valley....4/28/92...17.00....-11.0%......61.........3.......22.52....... 8.2% 9....Peak.....8/20/92...20.81.....22.4%....114........4........17.45 .......+0.4% 10..Valley...10/5/92....17.38....-16.5%......46.......10.......22.93.......14.7% 11..Peak.....2/14/92 ...20.00.....15.1%......70........3.......16.72........27.4% 12..Valley....2/22/93 ...13.13 ...-34.4%..... 70 .....33.......18.25 ......14.5% 13..Peak.....3/11/93 ...15.94 ....21.4%......17 . .....3.......13.08 .... -8.2% 14..Valley....3/24/93 ...14.25 ...-10.6%......13........1........19.49......3.1% 15..Peak.....6/17/93 ...18.90.....32.6%...... 85.......6.......15.73 .....13.1% 16..Valley...8/16/93 ...13.92 ....-26.4%..... 60.....13.......19.13 .....17.2% 17..Peak.....9/03/93....16.31......17.2%......18.......1.......13.41......-7.1% 18..Valley...10/04/93...14.44 ....-11.5%......31.......1.......19.70 .....11.9% 19..Peak.... 12/30/93...17.60 .....21.9%......87.......0......14.57 .......9.7% 20..Valley....3/31/94....13.29 ....-24.5%......91.......2......18.43......-18.1% 21..Peak......3/29/95....22.50.....69.4%.....363......3......18.96.......-5.8% 22..Valley.....5/15/95....20.13..... -10.6%.....47......5......25.96........0.6% 23..Peak......8/1/95......25.81......28.3%..... 78..... 5......21.93 ......-5.7% 24..Valley....9/8/95.......23.25.....-9.9%....... 38....10.....29.40 .......-12.1% 25..Peak.....12/14/95....33.44.....43.8%.......97......5.....28.77.........-4.9% 26..Valley.....1/19/96.....30.25.....-9.5%.......36....14..... 37.10.........4.9% 27..Peak.......2/13/96.....35.38....16.9%.......25.....4...... 30.50 ........-0.8% 28..Valley.....3/14/96..... 30.75....-13.1%......30.....11.....37.65.........4.0% 29..Peak.......4/3/96 ......36.19....17.7%.......20..... 2......31.23 .......-0.7% 30..Valley......5/8/96......31.44....-13.1%......35......3......38.41........-0.7% 31..Peak.......6/17/96.....38.69....23.1%.......40......3......33.47........2.0% 32..Valley......7/16/96.....32.81....-15.2%.....29......2.......39.92........-7.7% 33..Peak.....10/21/96......43.25...31.8%.......97..... 5.......37.56....... -4.9% 34..Valley....10/28/96.....39.50....-8.7%........7.......5.......47.28 ....... 3.6% 35..Peak.....11/26/96 .....45.63...15.5%......29.......4.......39.69 .......-0.1% 36..Valley....12/6/96 .......39.75...-12.9%.....10.......5.......47.56........-4.6% 37..Peak.......2/18/97......49.88...25.5%......74...... 5.......43.50.........4.8% 38..Valley..... 4/03/97......41.50...-16.8%.....44.....15.......49.48........30.9% 39..Peak.......7/07/97.......64.75.. 56.0%......95 ....18.....55.13 .........-7.4% 40...Valley....8/18/97........51.06...-21.1%.....42 ...11.....66.88.........10.1% 41...Peak....10/24/97.......73.63 ...44.2%......67.....3 ....62.00...........4.8% 42...Valley...10/27/97.......65.00 ...-11.7% .....4.....2.....85.50.........-12.1% 43...Peak....10/30/97.......74.88.....15.2% .....2..... 3.....66.00.........+0.5% 44...Valley...11/13/97.......66.31....-11.3%....14.... 3.....83.00.........-3.6% 45...Peak....12/04/97.......80.00.....20.6%....21.....2......69.13.......+0.6% 46...Valley...12/19/97.......69.56....-13.0%....15.....1......87.13........+9.0% 47...Peak......1/05/98.......79.94.....14.9% ....17....1......69.38 ....... -2.4% 48...Valley... 1/12/98...... 71.06.....-11.1% .... 7....3 .....87.00........ -4.9% 49...Peak..... 2/27/98...... 91.44.......28.7% ...46 ...1 ....79.87 ....... -5.1% 50...Valley....3/06/98.......84.13.........-8.0% .... 7 ...3....103.71.......+0.0% 51....Peak.....4/06/98 ....103.75........23.3%...31...13.....91.86 ........-3.6% 52...Valley.... 4/16/98......95.31........ -8.1%....10 ....1...116.50 ........-4.3% 53...Peak......4/21/98.....121.75.........27.7%.....5 ....8...109.12..........4.5% 54...Valley....5/17/98 .....104.75........-14.0% ...26 ..2....124.00.......+8.6% 55....Peak ....5/20/98 .....114.19.........9.0%......3 ...4 ....101.10.......+0.8% 56 ...Valley.. 6/01/98......100.38........-12.1%....12...5 ....119.75.......+4.2% 57....Peak.... 6/18/98 ....114.94..........14.5%....17...1 ...102.00........-3.4% 58....Valley.. 7/06/98 .....105.63......... -8.1% ...18 ..4.....126.59.......+5.0% 59....Peak ...7/14/98......120.56..........14.1% .....8 ..4....107.00........+9.2% 60... Valley... 8/11/98......98.00.........-18.7%.....28...1.....117.19.......+7.6% 61....Peak...8/19/98.......108.94..........10.6% .....8 ..1.......97.06........+5.5% 62....Valley.. 9/01/98 ..... 92.00......... -15.5% ...13 ..6....109.79.......+7.6% 63....Peak ...9/03/98......102.06..........10.9% ......2....5.....90.32........-3.4% 64... Valley.. 9/04/98......93.50...........-8.4%........1... 5...110.79.......+6.7% 65....Peak.....9/15/98.....103.88........+11.1%.....11...0.... 92.25.......-2.9% 66....Valley....9/21/98......95.00.........-8.5%.........6...0....110.00.....+0.7% 67....Peak.....9/28/98.....109.19........+14.9%...... 7...2......96.93.....+12.7% 68....Valley...10/08/98......86.00........-21.3%.....10...5......101.40.....+4.6% 69....Peak.....10/12/98.... 96.94........+12.7%.......4...0.... 85.30......-3.6% 70....Valley...10/14/98......88.50.........-8.7%........2...2....103.36.......-19.8% 71....Peak....12/31/98 ... 128.94......+45.7%.......78...1.....114.00.......+4.1% 72....Valley...1/12/99......109.56........-15.0%.....12...4.....127.49........-5.3% 73....Peak....2/02/99 ... 134.63.......+22.9%......21...5.....118.66.......-5.1% 74....Valley...2/09/99......125.00........-7.1%.........7.....0....139.84........-3.2% 75....Peak.....3/23/99 ... 144.50.........+15.6%....42....2.....128.27.......-4.9% 76....Valley...3/26/99.....134.88.........-6.7%........3....0.......157.25.......+4.7% 77....Peak.....4/12/99... 150.13.......+11.3%.......17....2.....131.31.......+4.3% 76....Valley...4/15/99.....127.88........-14.8%........3....3.... ........Pending ______________________________________________ Average..Peak (1999) N=3..............+16.6%.....27.............3 Average..Peak (1998) N=13............+18.3%.....18 ............3 Average..Peak (1997) N= 5.............+32.3%.....52.............7 Average..Peak (90-99) N=39...........+27.5%.....63 ............4 Average..Valley (1999) N= 4 ........... -10.9%......6 .............2 Average..Valley (1998) N=12 ......... -12.1%.....12 .............3 Average.. Valley (1997) N= 5...........-14.2%.....10 .............2 Average..Valley (90-99) N=39 .........-14.1%.....28 .............6 The Peabody 1999 Archives 4/14/99 PFE@ 144 5/8 "Neutral with an upward bias...Be very alert!! PFE 1 Qt earnings could trigger a strong move up or down..If the move is down to the 140 level, another PFE buy opportunity will be upon us." www3.techstocks.com 4/10/99 PFE@146 "Neutral with an upward bias...Particularly exciting week with many forces at play...Expect traditional profit-taking down to 140 before the run at 150..." www3.techstocks.com 3/29/99 PFE@141: "Headed higher to an all-time high (144 1/2) and more.....PFE will propel pass 150 in April". Message 8595595 3/28/99 PFE@135: " A PFE buying opportunity will surface this week....The basic PFE PFUNdamentals have never been stronger. In July, you will be wondering why you did not buy PFE at pre-adjusted split levels of 43-45 (129 to 135)." Message 8569605 3/23/99 PFE@139.25: "PFE will reverse and move lower". www3.techstocks.com 3/16/99 PFE@142.00: "PFE will reverse and move lower". www3.techstocks.com 3/11/99 PFE@140.68: "PFE will reverse and move lower". www3.techstocks.com 3/08/99 PFE@139.56: "PFE will reverse and move lower..long-term PFE is headed to the long-awaited $150 level." www3.techstocks.com 3/07/99 PFE@136.56: "PFE will now battle @140..expect profit-taking at all-time highs and even a possible drop back to the high 120s." www3.techstocks.com 2/28/99 PFE@131.94: "Expect a March trading range of 125 to 142". www3.techstocks.com 2/23/99 PFE@ 133.88: "PFE moving higher to $140". www3.techstocks.com 2/14/99 PFE@130.13: "Short-term trend "Neutral"...PFE could sink to another buying opportunity or jump to an all-time high". www3.techstocks.com 2/09/99 PFE@125.25:" Be very alert for a buying opportunity this week." www3.techstocks.com 2/02/99 PFE@ 132.69: "PFE will reverse and move lower....a final attempt @135 before the Valley ride begins". www3.techstocks.com 1/31/99 PFE@128.88 :" Expect a February trading range of 119 to 135+". (Actual: 125 to 135) www3.techstocks.com 1/28/99 PFE@127.56: "PFE has momentum and will break an all-time high and possibly the 130 level...but profit-taking will begin". www3.techstocks.com 1/27/99 PFE@121.94: "3-4-1 and have PFun!...Thursday is the key day." www3.techstocks.com 1/26/99 PFE@120.13: "PFE moving higher...positive trend will gain momentum." www3.techstocks.com 1/24/99 PFE@115.75: "Near term direction unclear...positive PFE news to be announced" www3.techstocks.com 1/10/99 PFE@122.25: "After 2 months, the Model has reversed and shows a positive upward trend....A PFE split announcement is guaranteed later this month with a 75% probability of a historic 3-1." www3.techstocks.com The PFE 1999 Split: All you need to know -At the 4/22/99 Annual Meeting, shareholders will officially authorize increasing the number of outstanding shares to allow a 3-1 split. -In the afternoon of 4/22/99, the PFE Board of Directors will meet and formally approve the 3-1 split and determine its effective date. -The effective split date will probably be following the June 30, 1999 close..(based on the 1997 split which also became effective after the 1997 Annual Meeting.) -A split does not increase the value of PFE. However, historically it certainly has not hurt the PFE price . Note PFE's growth during the split years: Year Ending..... Dow ........PFE......% Chg . Date................ Index.......Price.....Prior Year....Comments 12/31/87...........1,896........5.82......-25.0%....... Bear market/market crash 12/30/88...........2,169........7.25.......24.7% 12/29/89........... 2,753.......8.69......19.9% 12/31/90............2,634.......10.10.....16.2% 12/31/91............3,168.......21.00.......108.0%.....2-1 split (2/91) 12/31/92.......... 3,301.......18.13......-13.7%......Clinton elected president 12/31/93......... ..3,754........17.25.......-4.8%.......Healthcare reform pending 12/30/94......... ..3,844........19.32.......12.0% 12/29/95............5,177........31.50.......63.1% ......2-1 split (6/95) 12/30/96............6,448........41.50.......31.7% 12/31/97............7,908........74.56.......79.7% ......2-1 split (6/30/97) 12/31/98......... ..9,181........125.00......67.6%......Viagra approved (3/27/98) 04/15/99............10,463.......130.00...... 4.0%.....Celebrex launched (1/19/99)