To: Tim Luke who wrote (25359 ) 4/16/1999 12:14:00 AM From: IQBAL LATIF Read Replies (8) | Respond to of 50167
Tim-- Balkan have treacherous past, if you look at the root causes of many a troubles you would find that it was murder of the Hungarian Crown Prince in Sarajevo by some Serbs which led to this confrontation between the Axis and Allies, but ground rules have considerably changed, although Mr Kissinger thinks that past can haunt us again but in my opinion even ground troops would not lead to a major conflict in heart of Europe. Greece is a part of Nato, Russia realises well that to protect Milosivic they well put the Russian nation future economic interests at stake, Germans are worried but they are not a material play, French are ducking they have passed on the leadership to US or say Anglo Saxon - axis. I would say it is totally different this time. Balkans like we have seen post Bosnia Dayton accord needs leadership, the Europeans does not have the politcal will or capability to put things in order, simplified it may sound I would think that Serbian defince is already razed to ground. The Russian 'humanitarian help' is blocked in Hungary and do not forget Russia's Moscow Military district first time shares a border with a Nato country, a country with fears of encirclement is fully encircled, so for me it is going to be over soon although market will fail to understand that and may sell. Once Steve asked me what it is worth to the market a 1000 point? I know one thing that it may test 1130 area but the recovery would be rather fast, remember Gulf war we may see selling before the action but when action started the things were percived differently. . Post- action we may see a recovery, the chances of US or European troops being bogged down in Kosovo are little unlike Vietnam no one is going to stab the US from the back. I do see a very good chance of that happening and Clinton fighting for a place in history will do it efficiently. US has to lead the world and with an economic super power status they have been accorded a special responsibility of Global Peace this is a task no US President would ever be able to duck, yes US would need to make those sacrifices and I think it is a nation bestowed by the 'Will of God' with this 'Global Peace' responsibility. Sacrifices would be made by many a Private Rayan's. The sacrifices of past has yielded in to benefits of today, we are reaping the benefit of past sacrifices. The beaches at Omaha and Normandy are witness to those thousands of unknown US and English soldiers who fought and shed their blood to flush out tyranny. The blood of thousands of martyrs raised a new Europe from ashes from a past that is checkered with worst of 'extermination of mankind'. US has done it before they will do it this time.