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To: Michael & B.Anne who wrote (6769)4/16/1999 12:49:00 AM
From: Michael Burry  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78595
 
are you saying borders has a natural advantage in that it makes money and amazon is
destined to always lose money


yes. and if amzn does make money, it won't be very much.

If anything, that I openly bash Amazon's business economics while taking advantage of them by taking an additional 15-30% off their margins for every book I sell off the site (not that many buy there - it's just a convenience, really) is a validation that I'm not very biased here.

And yes, when I think of all the analysts and investors that have been wrong from the start on Amazon.com, it does make me smile.

And it doesn't matter how fast you turn inventory or don't carry inventory if you do it at as big a loss as Amazon does. Even Blodgett admits it is a gamble whether Amazon will EVER make money. I don't see any leverage there to raise prices.

Mike



To: Michael & B.Anne who wrote (6769)4/16/1999 1:05:00 AM
From: jeffbas  Respond to of 78595
 
I think Mike is right on the book business.

Here is a personal anecdote. A very nice Barnes and Noble superstore recently opened about a mile from my house. Fun to browse around, etc. etc. Recently my wife wanted to buy some CD as a gift. We checked Amazon for some info that helped us decide we really wanted it, called B&N to be sure they had it in stock, and went there to buy it, paying list. The AMZN price savings less S&H was not a big deal, we wanted it right away, and it is fun to go there.



To: Michael & B.Anne who wrote (6769)4/16/1999 7:59:00 AM
From: Terrapin  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78595
 
M&B.A,

Every now and then it is good to hear the bullish argument for AMZN <g> but I do not believe that they are in exactly the same business as BGP. Having recently bought books at Borders, Barnes and Nobles and Amazon.com I've realized that there are specific instances for each. If I hear of a book on NPR that sounds interesting and can live without it for a few days, or if I'd like to send a gift to someone out of town I buy through Amazon. If it is a rainy Sunday morning but the family feels like getting out of the house we go to Borders. Do not dismiss the coffee and sandwiches so easily. A recent trip resulted in the impulse purchase of the food, a small book on gardening, a CD and a teen beauty magazine (um...not for me). And if I want to read in relative solitude I go to Barnes and Nobles which is across the street from Borders and nearly empty because of the poor business they are doing.

That is all anecdotal but the balance sheet is not. I can muse about the business plan all I want but the fact is that Borders is making money (I will not argue with the market), is expanding and has one of the most realistic expectations for the internet that I have seen in a long time (that is a judgement call of course).

In a way BGP reminds me of Starbucks. Everybody served coffee so Starbucks decided to charge ~10X the going rate for what they thought was better coffee and people ponied up. They had excellent management and a plan for growth. Of course they did not face competition from a company selling coffee over the internet but I am sure somebody is working on that <G>! But my point is that price is not everything and when you add S&H it is nearly even.

Here's hoping BGP goes down because my GTC order has not been filled yet :(

Cheers,
John