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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ditchdigger who wrote (42333)	4/16/1999 8:29:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

Cyclical Rotation: Vince Farrell on CNBC this a.m. says - ...'' he does not see a continuing trend here to a rotation into cyclical stocks yet.'' He referred to it as '' not a shift, but a trading lurch.'' He thought buyers would return to the growth stocks & high flyers on dips here. Maria B is touting the pre-market internet buying on the dip action.DLJ upgrades AMZN and the entire sector trading up premarket - go figure; Chuckie will not die... We will see if a shift is occurring, or if all we got was a lumbering lummox (ala~ Fidelity) simply moving a big 'ole chunk of money with the mo-mo boys riding their backs... time will tell. Again; look at the charts over the last 3 months; why would Institutions be large buyers here, based on either Crude, or OSX prices ? The same questions remain unanswered that they have publically stated were the issue; will OPEC comply to the new cuts and will the earnings season hold any more surprise ? How many chances of late have they had to buy cheaper ? What would be the catalysts to drive these stocks out of buying range, before they see the hand of the earnings reports dealt face up and untill they see what OPEC has done ? For the OSX to remain strong - the big 3 SLB HAL & BHI must maintain momenteum. These are the plays for the major funds. Ask yourself if HAL with a forward PE of 28 is looking real cheap off of its $3 move; or SLB with a forward PE of 36 and its $3+ move is looking like a value play ? We shall see - let the ''new money'' run this up and take a little profit here imho - we will get a chance to buy most stocks cheaper. RIG may be an exception... also, if you take profits in the big movers - there are plenty of rotation plays available. I'd love to have been a seller of HAL, or SLB yesterday and bought PGO on its selloff. Those are the plays I'm looking for. One does not have to keep the cash on the sidelines - rotation within the sector holds great trading & profit opportunities.

To: Ditchdigger who wrote (42333)	4/16/1999 9:42:00 AM
From: Aggie	Respond to of 95453

Ditchdigger, hello My information is that the Frontier will begin operations for Conoco off of New Zealand this summer/fall. Estimated dayrates to Conoco, who are part owner, are around $180 - 200K. My friends in the Jakarta oilfield are shaking their heads over this - the New Zealand play is rank rank wildcat - but the bottom line is that Conoco is locked in. A similar case with Shell and the Stena Tay, a former accommodations semi which has been converted to a ram-type 10K' water depth DP drilling semi. A real piece of work, original conversion budget $180 MM, now well over $300. Shell is locked in to a 10 year contract, $180M dayrates (i hear), and looking for a home. Rumor is the Tay will go to Trinidad first for a fairly shallow water well (+/-3K' water depth) as shakedown, then down to Brazil. This in my opinion is going to be the next interesting dynamic on the rig market: All of these sexy deep water newbuilds (floaters and jackups) will be cranking out of the shipyard in the latter part of this year, with pretty firm contracts already let. Will it serve to further depress the market, or will there be enough activity industry wide to absorb these very high dayrates? Regards to all, Aggie