To: Tiger USA who wrote (21452 ) 4/16/1999 11:55:00 AM From: WhatsUpWithThat Respond to of 37507
FWIW, from Keith Benjamin's Weekly Web Report... "IPO SPREAD NARROWING - We believe we are beginning to see a slightly more rational IPO process in terms of the entourage of Internet companies being introduced to the market each week. Comparing Q4 Internet-related deals to Q1, we found it interesting to note that the average first day jump from the IPO offer price to the first trade, declined from approximately 225% in the December quarter, to approximately 156% in Q1. We expect this spread to continue narrowing as more supply hits the market and as stocks stop going up after the first day of trading. For reference, the average percentage change from the closing price on the first day to the price two weeks later was up 31.4% in Q4 and up only 14.3% in Q2. We believe investors will learn to avoid this frenzied trading as quickly as the first few deals start going down after the first trading day. We have already seen a few examples. " Interesting because it appears IPO mania is dying down a bit (which is actually good, for the market as a whole, anyway) - but note that first day gain still averages 150%! - and more importantly because the price two weeks later is still up 15% over the first day close. So, IMHO, of course BIDS won't see a 150% gain on first day on NASDAQ, but it will pop...but it seems more reasonable to me that it follow the +-15% of the first day pattern. Some have indicated they feel it's going to hit NASDAQ and drop like a rock. If IPO's stay (on average) within 15% of the first day close after such dramatic climbs that day, I think it says something of the general appetite still for these small, new <g> stocks. WUWT