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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (39568)	4/17/1999 10:23:00 AM
From: Kip518	Respond to of 94695

Ursa Rising? From Peter Eliades: As a quick refresher course, a "Sign of the Bear" occurs when there are 21-27 consecutive days on the NYSE where the daily advance-decline ratio remains between .65 and 2.20. In the original article in May 1998, I gave those parameters as .65 to 1.95, but later research revealed the upper parameter could be widened to 2.20. Such a consecutive streak sets up the initial requirements of the pattern. Then the pattern has to break to the downside i.e. see a daily a-d ratio less than .65, and upon breaking to the downside, the average ratio of the next 2 or three days must be below .75 to 1. So far through Friday, April 16, there have been 17 consecutive days with ratios higher than .65 but lower than 2.20. I should make it clear that a Sign of the Bear has not been present at all the important tops of the past 75 years and is not a requirement for a final top, but it has preceded some of the most important ones. I should also emphasize the rarity of the signal. Between 1928 and December 1961, a period of 33 years, there was only one signal. It occurred on July 19, 1929. Between December 1972 and early 1998, a period of over 25 years, there was not a single signal. We have now seen two signals in 12 months and are on the verge of a third. We will watch next week with interest.