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Technology Stocks : Safeguard Scientifics SFE -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael r potter who wrote (2637)	4/16/1999 2:10:00 PM
From: andy harrison	Respond to of 4467

Been doing the same thing..Love SFE but..the valuation??? Bought 2 stocks..Childrens Place (PLCE) and ASTEC Industries (ASTE). ASTE had great numbers and of course sold off. Go figure.

To: michael r potter who wrote (2637)	4/16/1999 2:19:00 PM
From: still learning	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4467

OT -- Micahel, I have been moving steadily into oil services and exploration stocks. Still some very good values there. Wondering what to do with Internets -- add more SFE and SFE-like candidates, or stand pat and let things run their course. some interesting feedback from a corp-fin. guy at a top 10 IB frim yesterday. He said the intertet craze has about a year left. By that time many of these no-earnings companies may have to put up or shut up. Between now and then? who knows. I think the institutional investors and funds have rolled over and are broadly covering their bets by indiscriminantly buying anything internet, but it won't take much of a scare to spawn a flight to quality. Are we in a scare? I don't think so -- this is just a pause. But it's a game of musical chairs and no one knows when the music's going to go off.

To: michael r potter who wrote (2637)	4/16/1999 4:41:00 PM
From: Micawber	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4467

>> Have felt for some time that the risks with SFE increase, when the unknown re: specifics of their future actions regarding ICG and IPO/rights offerings become known and implemented. Am more comfortable when investors don't know and are allowed to let imaginations run wild. Specifics starting to emerge. Don't have current SFE short term opinion. Thank goodness for the weekend, time to catch up<< Mike: How is this OT?? Looking forward to your comments over the weekend.

To: michael r potter who wrote (2637)	4/17/1999 2:16:00 AM
From: michael r potter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4467

-OT- follow up, some "old time" SFE shareholders [and new for that matter] have been taking partial profits and possibly looking to diversify. In this spirit, if it is OK with others, maybe we could swap one or two favorite buys, not as an ongoing ritual, but maybe for a couple days if anyone cares to. I always appreciate input from other members of this very high quality board. If you object, speak up or just skip clearly labeled OT, if no interest. Of course SFE input especially welcome at all times. I like new buys to meet both a fundamental and technical criteria, like Sanchez did a couple weeks ago. In fact part of this weeks sales of SCAI went here. Please keep an open mind on this one: The company produced record earnings in '98 and should do the same in "99. The only A rated company in its industry with a profit greater than all other North American companies in its field COMBINED. Top notch management focused on financial performance. $301M. in engs. "98 and operating cash flow will rise 30% in '99 to $700M. 22 PE on '99 engs. A contrarian play up with stock up 12% last two days on the highest upside volume this year both days. Technically broke a downtrending channel to the upside, on Stochastic buy signal. The company is Barrick Gold ABX $19. Yes, I know gold has been in the dumps, and people could care less, but wait... Barrick has the most sophisticated hedging program in the industry and the next 3 years production sold at a minimum of $385- no misprint! [current price app. $285 per oz.] They have added 30 M. oz to reserves the last 5 yrs. despite producing 15M oz. Total reserves at a record 50M. oz. Their cash operating cost in '98 was $160 per oz. and in '99 that should drop to $120 per oz. If they can achieve this level of performance with Asia, a big gold consumer in recession, it is a major psychological positive that the first signs of recovery are starting to appear. This is a world class company with earnings and cash flow that 80% of the internet companies will not achieve in their lifetimes. They just happens to be in the gold business. For anyone with doubts of what is possible even if gold prices don't go up, look at what ABX did in the '80s as gold prices went from $700 to $400 per oz. ABX went up many fold, even as inflation collapsed. Could be that with the world economy picking up, maybe the best of dis-inflationary psychology is behind us. Oil is acting like it is already. Have followed them for years, they do what they say. Only regret is that I didn't pick up a larger than usual position, may change that early next week, will for sure if there is a pullback. Thanks, Mike

To: michael r potter who wrote (2637)	4/17/1999 7:45:00 PM
From: robert miller	Respond to of 4467

Michael, I believe the short term outlook at 83 is favorable because, 1. Earnings will be good because of the TLAB stock. We know this really does not mean much, but there will be lot of favorable noise. 2. Musser was on Vcallapolooza and he promised 2 or maybe 3 IPO's in the next month. It was also stated by someone from Emerald that SFE may have 5 IPO's this year. 3. There would appear to be a good chance for for a split at these levels. 4. The stock has corrected from 120 down to 83. 5. Some of the recent IPO's have started to move,CVSN, DOCC and OAOT. 6. SCAI backed off the spectacular advance to 80. But it is holding in the 50-60 range. Only my opinion, bob

To: michael r potter who wrote (2637)	4/28/1999 1:26:00 PM
From: michael r potter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4467

-OT[mostly] - AA " Alcoa takes over leadership position from AOL!" Heresy? Maybe, but from the March lows, AA has gone from $36 to $59 and International Paper from $50 to $72. After a 10 day consolidation of their large gains, the cyclical/value are off and running again. AOL reported #s that matched even whisper #s and the reaction is a large yawn. During the past couple of weeks there have been many comments in the press mostly disparaging this potential change of leadership. For example, when the gold stocks were up strong, the comments included the fact that they were up despite little movement in bullion and the not so subtle implication that the move was off base. When oils were up, the rap was that they could not go mush further because crude was at the top of its trading range. Texaco reported horrible #s and the stock is up about $5 in two days, which for Texaco is like leaping a tall building. The consolidation of the big move in cyclicals/value was very orderly and there was little give-back. It is a very bullish phenomena when a group goes up on good volume, is under-owned, and the move is met with widespread skepticism. The other part of the comments from a couple of weeks ago, included that I-Net stocks would now go into a trading range. That so far appears to be the case. AOL must contend with the fact that it has real earnings that are increasingly subject to scrutiny from a hard nosed valuation models. It is hard for the company to exceed optimistic projections built into the current price. SFE stock is in a state of equilibrium with the positive story of what they have going now widely disseminated and a generous assessment of their immediate future, now built into the price. It is supported [from going down] by the fact that the story is very good, and thus the two sides are fairly evenly matched. Internet stocks do best when imaginations are left to run wild and only sketchy but tantalizing facts emerge as to their future progress. Gradually, there is emerging a trend toward stocks that conform more closely to accepted standards of valuation and this should limit the upside of internet stocks in general. Because many I-Net companies do have a very bright future, that is limiting downside. SFE will break out one way or another from this very tight trading range and I am not certain which way. My guess is that unless there is a large sell-off in the I-Net sector as a whole, the breakout will be to the upside, probably sparked with news of ICG filing. Just a guess at this point. By the way, it must be very difficult to put together the legal paperwork for a filing, because the situation is so fluid with new companies being added, mergers etc. In other words the legal documents for filing almost need amendments within a week or two of completion. Mike