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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (42440)	4/16/1999 4:42:00 PM
From: Ahmed Elneweihi	Respond to of 95453

George, I do not like to make prediction about next week or even next day. I try to find trends to follow or detect a change in trend to get in near the bottom, as I and many of you did with OSX stocks. Right now I know that the major trend in oil, OIX and OSX is up. There will be setbacks and down days or even weeks, but the MAJOR trend is UP, even if we see a correction next week of this sharp two-day rise.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (42440)	4/16/1999 5:03:00 PM
From: Gary Burton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

EW---The First Phase rose 24 pts in a 5 wave sequence from 47-71 ish. The Second Phase started at Wed' low of 61ish and needs to ultimately get to at least 85ish for it to exceed the length of the First Phase. If this is a true New Bull Market, the rise off the 47 low on Mar 1 will ULTIMATELY rise in a 5 (not 3) LARGER wave sequence , of which the First Phase would be Wave 1 (47 to 71) and the Second Phase is EITHER the start of Wave 3 (ie maybe just subwave 1 of Wave 3) OR all of Wave 3, but such that Wave 3 ends up rising MORE than Wave 1 and then Wave 4 refuses to dip below the top of Wave 1 . ie to simplify things we need 2 things to occur--1) a wave 3 rise ultimately beyond 85 and 2) a wave 4 retracement that bottoms out ABOVE the top of wave 1 (71 ish)...... My suspicion is that by Mon Apr26 we will see the end of this particular 5 subwave sequence up from the 61ish low which started from wed's low (we are in 3 now which may extend to say 74ish Mon, then a dip back to 71ish for 4 then a final surge to 77-80ish for 5)--but THAT 5 wave sequence will end up being only subwave (i) of a larger Wave 3----that's how we may eventually get above 85. ...So, my forecast is now as follows---Up Mon am to say 74ish, then down 3 pts or so, then up 6ish pts to say 77 to complete this particular 5 wave sequence. After that, we retrace say 5-10 pts before again basing and starting wave (iii) of this Second Phase--this time going past 77-80 towards 90+......One may logically ask where the 77-80 Resistance Point comes from. It is based on my trading software's calculations which are based on the MOMENTUM of the first wave up to 71 plus next wave down to 60 and also the momentum of this current wave (it has nothing to do with elliott). It is targeting the 77-80 area as the next important level where the uptrend should approach and potentially turn back from. It can blow through there like a train or back off and regroup before taking another run. But, it should at least be tested....Since the prior peak of 71.48 was exceeded today, that peak no longer applies and the operative one becomes 77-80 for the time being.