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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elwood P. Dowd who wrote (58220)	4/16/1999 4:50:00 PM
From: Roads End	Respond to of 97611

EL...You are right, the scenario is different this year but the pain is the same. Basically CPQ has blown the opportunity to participate in an unprecedented technology expansion / explosion. I can think of no other organization that would allow their leadership to continue driving it. I challenge any reader to identify one. My prediction is still the same two fold outcome as far as share price is concerned and as long as EP is still here your dead money prediction is on target. A new leader and the AV spin out would move us up. AV spin out with EP is a non event. Steve

To: Elwood P. Dowd who wrote (58220)	4/16/1999 5:13:00 PM
From: QuentR	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

El, I hear you. I agree. I hope for your 3rd guess - a long shot agreed - for a bounce on Wednesday after the bad news becomes history. I'm sure they will be trying to spin out some good news on Thursday at the stock holders meeting. I hope we could end up at 28 - 30 instead of 23 - 25 or lower. Put me down for 29 on 4/30 with earnings of .16. It is too dangerous to hold Compaq at its years worst with the market at its best.

To: Elwood P. Dowd who wrote (58220)	4/16/1999 5:17:00 PM
From: rupert1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

El: You, like many of us, have been through a prolonged period of anxiety, losses, fear and uncertainty since mid-February (not to mention a good part of 1998, in your case). It is not surprising that your immune system is a bit clapped out. Whatever the cause, it is difficult to think straight in that condition. Every year that I have been following the market, at this time of the year, stories abound about the end of the expansion in computers, software, chips, storage, servers, telephones, TV 's, automobiles, tractor, hoand so on. It never happens, or if it does, companies adjust. Lower PC prices are cushioned by lower component costs, lower costs of finance and lowr costs of doing business. This time is not like the last two times we were at $23. This time last year CPQ had revenues of $5.6 billion and earnings of 1 cent. This year we have revenues of at least $9.4 billion and earnings of at least 15 cents. Last year we were at the beginning of a very long road of integrating DEC and Tandem. This year we are within sight of the end of that road, maybe 20% more to go. Since then COMPAQ has demonstrated that it could make 43 cents in the final quarter and pass its all time high. It has also cleared up all the excess inventory and developed many new products. Its revenues are at an all time high, its units sales are at an all time high. Since then COMPAQ has purchased three or four revenue earning companies to be put together with AV to be spun off in about 4 months. COMPAQ's asset value will increase by at least 15% as a result of that spin off. Get yourself about five bottles of beer, if you must sit in front of the goggle box, use AV to look up "Harvey" and have fun. Next week should be better. We will have clarity and knowledge and relief. Because of your and mine and all of our reasonable complaints, EP is a changed man, much more sensitively aware that he has to galvanise himself and the company or at least, communicate more clearly with Wall Street and us. Even in that magazine interview he was using different words than he has used before. Still a lot of Babblefish type structures, but better already. Don't sweat the small stuff. It will be in excess of $55 by Christmas and on the way there will be lots of opportunities to trade it 2-5 points at a time. When it does get to $51 you should be richer than when you got there last time if you trade a bit more actively. I'm off now, late evening can sometimes be a downer on the thread.