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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (11253)	4/16/1999 5:03:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Donald, i believe that the options market may give some clues as to what's happening here. as noted all week, there was this strange divergence of speculation in individual equity calls and heavy OEX put buying. conceivably the speculation in calls was concentrating on the usual suspects, i.e. the momentum stocks that suffered so much this week. i have noticed for instance that there is a lot more volume in options on netstocks lately than there used to be. you may remember that i mentioned that the cyclicals which moved up this week are the very stocks where open interest in puts is bigger than in calls. if this theory is correct we should see the nasdaq move up on monday, as the april options have expired today.of course i'm not really sure whether the market can really be manipulated to such an extent. it may all be old-fashioned rotation, since so many of the leaders were very extended. regards, hb

To: donald sew who wrote (11253)	4/16/1999 7:20:00 PM
From: Ken98	Respond to of 99985

Don and Vitas, what were the things that all of the skeptics talked about during the last 6 months that would have to occur to make them bullish? A-D? RUT? Dow in an uptrend? Dow theory confirmation? All of which are happening now but something else seems to be happening. Look at the dollars coming out of stocks like these: quote.yahoo.com compared to dollars coming in to: quote.yahoo.com@^djt Yea, its great that the RUT and the DJT are moving again, but its small peanuts compared to dollars coming out of the glamour stocks. This is really going to hurt mutual fund returns. Also, could someone run a comparison chart of the price of oil the last 5-10 trading sessions compared to the DJT? How logical is it that these companies should go up when their largest cost component is going through the roof? It is either just option expiration or distribution. The next few days should give a clue which it was. The price of oil will be a big part of that clue along with the performance of the glam stocks the next few days.