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To: T A P who wrote (7256)4/16/1999 6:22:00 PM
From: Charles Kalb  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 9824
 
T.A.P.--------Wow, quite the SHAKER going this morning. In my view it could be considered a two-part shake that started at the 1.00 resistance level yesterday and concluded today (hopefully). Retracements of gain from the most recent low (valley or support) to the most recent high (peak or resistance) is something we have to live with in this business, especially volatile pennies actively manipulated by the market makers. Technical Analysis recognizes various retracement levels, e.g. 1/3 (33.3%), 1/2 (50%), and 2/3 (66.7%). There are also Fibonacci levels such as 50%, 61.8% and others. It is interesting that the collective mass psychology of the markets very often results in a retracement ending close to one of these levels.

IMO today we completed a Granddaddy 66.7% retracement. They usually don't get bigger than that unless the stock deserves to tank; and we know that is not the case here, right? Here is how I calculated this:

Recent low = 0.30
Recent high = 1.00, therefore recent gain = 0.70
Target price at end of 66.7% retracement = 1.00 - (0.667)(0.70) = 0.53

This is very close to where the shaker ended. The low for the day was 0.51.

During the action I saw the price momentum was likely to blow right through the 50% level so I calculated the next Fibonacci level of 61.8%, with the intent to add to my position as close to the bottom as I could. For genuine shakes, these intraday bottoms are very fleeting; the MM's don't give dazed shareholders (or now ex-shareholders) the chance to realize the bottom has been reached and this might be a good time to buy in. I didn't realize until later that the bottom was actually closer to a full 66.7% retracement. I filled on three separate orders on the way up (0.58, 0.62 and 0.68) and am pleased to note all were in the money at the close (0.73).

Charles