Hello Vaughn,
I thought I should respond to one of your previous posts, (the thoughts on Camafuca were excellent)with a few thoughts of my own:
<<Investors are looking for significant "growth" and tenure security not third-world "value".>>
This may be true in the post Bre-X world. However, as Canadian miners are the best explorationists in the world, and have helped to develop many great resources internationally, in places where exploration has traditionally been poor, the expectation of "growth" and "value" may be intertwined. Remember a few years ago when most Canadian exploration was thought to be of little "value" because much of the "growth" was likely to come internationally?
<<What SUF will realize from the Camafuca in its entire proven reserve life time, Canadian pipes such as DMM's or ABZ's will generate in six months.>>
I'm sorry, but this seems a little off-the-cuff and quick. Could you please post numbers to quantify this? Dia Met's first six months is fast approaching, with great results, not unlike SUF's at Marsfontein.
<<The market is prepared to speculate in plays when there is a reasonable chance of exponential growth through tenure safe Canadian pipes. Unless I miss my guess, SUF would have gone up on speculation on Yamba if these other announcements had not distracted the market from the one story that would have excited it.>>
The market is prepared to speculate in plays when there is a reasonable chance of expontential growth, period. Check out the "transformation plays", of broke Canadian juniors into internet things. The performance of MIY, CAV, and TQY has been that of almost broke, dormant companies suddenly being given life and hope by the SUF JV drilling. Because much is known about the potential of these pipes (due in no small way to your own educational progam on many threads -- hell, the volume on these three stocks alone could be explained by lurkers jumping on your comments; I know of at least two friends who bought Friday), the line between drilling and riches is easier to see. But if the same drilling was happening in Australia or Brazil, or RSA, these same people would be buying.
SUF did not go up because it is not comparable to the one-trick pony juniors. It has many other, more important assets, and that no one realizes the potential of the NWT via SUF is one of its primary problems. You and I seem to do as much conversation, posting. etc. and along with gemsearcher, Goalie, Gord, George (notice all the Gs?) et al, probably account for almost all of the non-analyst commentary about SUF.
SUF share price right now is a reflection of a couple large sellers. I do not know why. They seem incredibly impatient and shortsighted to sell now, especially in light of recent events and future potential. Here is how we can tell if the sellers are really that knowledgeable: If good results up north propels SUF higher, they will have been unwise and have done economic damage to themselves. If not, then maybe they, "the market" at present, are wiser than folks like you and me, and there is no upside to SUF. I'm betting that "they're" wrong, although "they" have been right for quite a while. Just as all the folks who sold Inco at $20, $18, and $16 were correct for awhile.
<<If management is smart, they will forgoe any but the most material news from overseas and concentrate on putting out Canadian pipe discovery news no matter if its just progress, but with out interuption until their is momentum behind SUF.>>
Quite the opposite, I believe that managment needs to increase communication, in the fashion of recent weeks, going forward. Obviously, the discovery of a Canadian pipe would be a tremendous achievement. (BTW, a pipe has ALREADY been found by the Kennecott program (SUF 40%), under lac de Gras, with CF and micro/macro numbers soon) The fire in the eyes of HB and CJ, from the last annual meeting, to a recent meeting, leads me to believe that the chances of success are high.
Much like I'd tell the WSP bulls, SUF already possesses what WSP aspires to, plus it has the addition of better exploration prospects in NWT (Yamba, Munn, Margaret and lac de Gras), the new Brazilian play, the new platinum deal (with earnings out only 2 years!), plus excellent exploration upside at Marsfontein and Klipspringer, plus earnings and cash flow from same, plus the world's largest diamondiferous pipe.
Another NWT pipi, maybe a few, would be excellent. This is part of the speculative upside to SUF. But this is all additive, not more important, to what SUF already possesses. I will say, even if SUF comes up donuts in the NWT, the stock is worth well over $20/share based on RSA alone.
And with apologies for tone, I shall remove myself to a full day of respect for the Great One.
Regards,
Confluence
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