Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (11269)	4/16/1999 8:49:00 PM
From: bearshark	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Don: I should have added a few more things. When I started collecting the moneyflow figures back at the end of December 1998, the RUT was at 400. It peaked at 431 towards the end of January 1999. During this period the block negative flow was $6 billion vs. a $1 billion positive moneyflow. (These are simply the column totals for the entire spreadsheet.) During the same period, the non-block money had a positive flow into the RUT with a positive flow of $2 billion vs. a negative flow of $1 billion. So big money is getting out of the RUT and small money is going into the RUT. Where is the money going? From all appearances, it is going into the lage stocks--the INDU stocks and others. That can be seen from the other spreadsheet that I posted. Since the end of December, block and non-block money has been pouring into the INDU. By the way, the SPX has the non-block money leaving and the block money flat. For the past month or so, I have used this data to assume that more big players are becoming more concentrated in a smaller number of stocks. That is great because it can be equated to volatility. Now, take a look at the INDU stocks again. During the last 10 trading days or so, small money has taken a greater interest in the INDU stocks as shown in the moneyflow. I am assuming some of that is the "hot money" from the DOT stocks. Suppose I am right about the "hot money" visiting the INDU--you were thinking about naming IP, IP.com yourself after this week's trading. We could go over 11000 on the INDU without "hot money." But with "hot money," it is assured. It just has to stay interested. With the "hot money" we can trade the INDU up and then play the collapse--it will be telegraphed. This would be the blow-off top. Maybe an intermediate top or something. However, if this continues, we have the potential for a huge INDU decline--maybe highlighted with a huge one-day decline.