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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (11274)	4/18/1999 11:31:00 AM
From: Walkbarr	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Do you know of where I can find a daily chart of the OEX Put/Call Ratio? TIA, David

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (11274)	4/20/1999 7:31:00 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 99985

PUT/CALL ratios for april 19 CBOE total: 0,54 individual equities: 0,36 OEX: 2,40 VIX: 28,56 ind. equity call vol.: 710,916(-67,057) put vol.: 255,807(-132,732) OEX call vol.: 26,758(-42,516) put vol.: 64,223(-50,732) the expiration-induced spike in options volume has now subsided; the ratios still paint the same inconclusive picture, with the ind.equity ratio in bearish territory and the OEX ratio at levels normally associated with panic bottoms. the question is: what to make of it? i have mentioned before that a one-day spike in OEX put volume in the face of a low ind. equity ratio must be considered bearish. but OEX put volume has been consistently high recently, which is normally bullish. viewed in the context of yesterday's market action, the possibility exists that we are in fact witnessing the beginning stages of a panic in the wake of a blow-off top. i have argued many times that an improvement of the market's internals should be viewed as bearish, as it would lead to an increase in conviction and complacency. my expectation was for a more drawn-out process though. if indeed a panic has already begun, the bullish implications of the OEX p/c ratio are meaningless. the helsinki hex got killed today, so we may well see a continuing decline in the nasdaq. the VIX once again reflects a sharp increase in OEX put premiums. should the sell-off continue today, watch for the VIX to reach approx. 60 to indicate a bottom. a big snapback rally today would negate the immediate 'panic-scenario', but would lend weight to the blow-off top theory, as such tops are characterized by increased two-way volatility near the top. hb