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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (6803)	4/16/1999 10:06:00 PM
From: TAPDOG	Respond to of 78567

Paul, just my two cents on VANS. My kid is a skateboarder and wears vans shoes. He says only the skateboarders wear these shoes and skateboarders are a small cult. His advice: "Pop, I'd rather own Nike than Vans."

To: Paul Senior who wrote (6803)	4/16/1999 11:15:00 PM
From: Shane M	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78567

Paul, I saw your post mentioning interest in ALL. This is entirely my personal opinion, but I'd hold off for a while on purchasing ALL. I wouldn't have said this a month ago, but outlook has gotten tougher IMO. I get the feeling that the first quarter top line growth is going to dissappoint, and we're seeing competition intensifying from all sides. There's no room for price increases, and several players seem willing to run higher combined ratios right now. State Farm seems to be phasing in an all out effort to defend marketshare, and Progressive is making inroads in most of the state's I am familiar with. AIG is taking an aggressive posture also. Insurance departments in general are becoming more combative from what I can tell following several years of strong profits by insurers. I hope Allstate announces a direct operation before it's too late, and I think the new CEO (Ed Liddy) understands this must be done if growth is to be achieved. The old distribution channel aint what it used to be and ALL isn't positioned well in the areas that are rapidly growing (like direct writers). FWIW, I'm aware of several of the new projects the company is implementing and I get a sense of increasing frustration from home office. All the old tricks don't seem to be generating growth like they used too, and I don't think they've yet come to terms with that. I am long ALL, but am cautious. Shane

To: Paul Senior who wrote (6803)	4/17/1999 1:23:00 AM
From: Stewart Whitman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78567

Paul, I'm sorry if I turned you off of PPE with my remarks on the spin-off thread. I've keep looking at it - market leader, good reputation for management, diversified portfolio of properties. I still come back to the facts as I see them - it is highly leveraged, Indian gaming in California is expanding (Prop. something or other was passed), lots of more places opening in Vegas, and more competition appearing in other "good" locations. This stock still isn't really attractive to me, because I don't feel comfortable with the balance sheet and the outlook. After watching the death stocks for some years (e.g. LWN and SRV) with their seemingly "reliable cash flow" for servicing debt faultering, I've been thinking about Buffet's low debt to equity rule (i.e. < 0.4 if I recall correctly). Still seems like a good general rule to live by, even in those "stable cash flow"-type situations. Regards, Stew

To: Paul Senior who wrote (6803)	4/19/1999 3:02:00 AM
From: John Stichnoth	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78567

Paul, I've read shane's reply on ALL, and I concur. There is something going on at ALL that doesn't look good. Earnings growth has definitely slowed, and the market seems to think that ALL has some real hurdles--like Geico, AIG, etc. ALL's PE is certainly attractive, but there are other insurance names with beaten down PE's as well. I haven't really investigated, but maybe a Conseco would offer more upside potential, given reasonable PE and well-defined issues in the Greentree Financial unit. Just a thought. BTW, I'm overweighted in insurance; esp. AIG. Have some ALL that I've had for a couple of years.