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Strategies & Market Trends : The 56 Point TA; Charts With an Attitude -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alski who wrote (28575)	4/17/1999 2:01:00 AM
From: Doug R	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 79227

Alski, NPCI: "Comments on today's wee excursion below utrend at 16 1/4? " I can only reiterate the seminar guidelines as to trend line violations. "Wee" is a much better opportunity to take heed than egregious. NPCI being a cup with handle breakout that has now hinted at faltering is very likely more of a "signal" about the general market as it is about the stock itself. There's reason to be at a heightened defensive state. Key in on the S&P 500 technicals here. Use the Dow as a confirmation and always consider global policy twists and turns inasmuch as interest rate movement becomes apparent. OK...I might as well lay it all on the line and ALSO REQUEST past seminar attendees to put what I've taught to work...for themselves as well as for the thread: In a PM response I put about 90% of my conclusions in print. Here they are: I'm out of the S&P as of the close on 4/30. I just hope the market holds up until then. I'm using the 13 dRSI, the 89, 3, 5 stochs, the 233, 21, 34 stochs, the trend line and how they are all working together right here. The 233, 21, 34 is showing unhealthy levels of overbought in the %D while the 89, 3, 5 is telegraphing that a negative cross will hit the longer term stoch. The 13 dRSI broke out of the triangle to the upside while failing to continue to a new cyclical high before falling back into the triangle. It doesn't look like it's going to hold the triangle support either the way the 89, 3, 5 is acting. I had mentioned the 3 peak sell signal for the RSI a couple weeks ago and said that sometimes a fourth peak on a new price high can occur. Well, that's what just happened on top of the triangle break out failure. The price trend line coming off the Oct. low is just obviously too steep to be maintained and it's in range of a break now. The utilities are behaving badly. The Transports topped out without doing the Dow theory confirmation thing by hitting a new high along with the other avgs. The Dow has made new highs while the Naz got seriously nasty and the S&P is weaker and on the verge of a breakdown...more non-confirmation. It's a bunch of stuff that when taken together is, to me, a big signal for a correction. Doug R One interesting facet that I may have jumped the gun on is that the transports did not falter and may still confirm the Dow highs. However, I am now focused on the S&P as a broader benchmark since the media has been claiming that leadership in the Dow has shifted to the traditional cyclicals. That usually happens at the top of an economic upturn so as far as the technology leaders are concerned, an emotionally driven selloff can be seen as perfectly logical. The new highs on the cyclicals will lead to a psychological reversal for a short time. That may be the impetus for a correction. When the "community" realizes that the fundamental dynamics for growth are still in place (it won't take long), there should be a sharp bottom and return to increased valuations along a more sustainable acceleration than the one exhibited since the October lows. Sheesh, I better just stop here for now before I write a book...>>gg<< Doug R....again PS: Do keep an eye on uptrend lines in the 144 and/or 233 day CCI and RSI on individual stocks for a breakdown...

To: Alski who wrote (28575)	4/17/1999 2:28:00 AM
From: Doug R	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 79227

Sheesh...Alski, One more chapter: I had also referred to the "unique" activity in the 2, 1, 2 stochastics on the Dow. Further examination of that particular activity has led me to the conclusion that a state of correctionable overbought has been reached. There was a sustained period of 2, 1, 2 weakness. 17 days. The Dow VERY RARELY brings the 2, 1, 2 up to a value of 100. If you go back and review price activity following 2, 1, 2 hits on 100, you'll see that a selloff always follows. Put the 17 days of weakness together with a double bang to 100 and there's really only one statistical conclusion. It's also interesting that the Dow put together 2 back to back weeks of 3%+ gains. Then there's some DeMarkian sequential stuff happening on the Dow as well. Short plays will be more certain upon failed attempts to recover broken uptrend lines. Since the future is not here yet, all I can do is start the next statement with an IF. IF a correction occurs, remember to SERIOUSLY look for those stocks that either do not break below their last significant uptrend line or recover their uptrend right away. Ok...that's it...I'm off to do some chart surfing. There's likely to be close to 2 more good weeks of trading long left before technical signals start failing all over the place so I'm still going after the few long plays that are left. FLYR is the best I've looked at...out of a couple hundred. There's a ton more than a couple hundred out there but I can only go with what I've looked at. Doug R