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To: hunchback who wrote (31954)	4/17/1999 1:15:00 AM
From: Richard Humphrey	Respond to of 116768

Thanks hunchback; JEC - Joint Executive Committee - John Saxton Congressional skeptisim is growing over proposed "IMF GOLD SALES". Another good read! regards! Rick.

To: hunchback who wrote (31954)	4/17/1999 4:27:00 AM
From: Alex	Respond to of 116768

Thanks hunchback.................. Out with the new; in with the old Switch under way from growth to value stocks By WILLIAM HANLEY The Financial Post It's too early to call a long-term trend, but the stock market appears to be ringing out the new and ringing in the old, exchanging the laggards for the leaders. That's old and new as in economies. The "old" economy stocks -- basic materials such as papers and steels and industrials such as machinery -- that have lagged the market are being snapped up. The "new" economy issues -- the technology and growth high-flyers that have led throughout this massive bull market run -- are being unceremoniously turfed out of many portfolios. The two-tier performance of the Dow Jones industrial average and the resurgence of the Toronto Stock Exchange 300 composite index's resource sector in the past few days speak volumes for a sea change in the making. The Dow's "old" economy stocks such as Alcoa Aluminum Inc. and International Paper Co. have been flying, while the "new" economy "growth" issues such as tech giant Hewlett-Packard Co. and number one retailer Wal-Mart Corp. have been tugging the average the other way. On the TSE, the "rocks and trees" -- metals and papers -- have been enjoying a renaissance. Gary Anderson, who plots strategy for Anderson & Loe Inc. of Eugene, Ore., says it is a basic instinct for money managers to buy the basic materials stocks -- and that "alien asset" gold -- as the first place to hedge against inflation. But he is quick to point out that the instinct for basics does not necessarily forecast boom times ahead for the U.S. economy. Money managers, forced to stay in the stock market, first decide to cut their risk by getting out of the pricey leading stocks and into the cheap laggards. The next step to cut down on risk, though, might be for them to exit the market. Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer at First Albany Corp. in Albany, N.Y., is not quite ready to consider the likelihood of a mass exodus from the market. But he does believe there's a major shift happening. "The large-cap growth companies that have led for the last four years are being exchanged for the large-cap value companies -- the industrials and basic materials," he says. Mr. Johnson notes that the basic materials and industrial stocks usually begin recovering just as the economic cycle is in its latter stages. He says these companies may be enjoying a recovery in pricing power -- a situation that usually invites the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise rates to cool the economy, which leads to the end of recovery and onset of recession. In considering the darker side of market prospects, Mr. Anderson says we can't ignore the war in the Balkans, which is threatening to become wider and deeper. He points out that the U.S. involvement in war has invariably been accompanied by bouts of inflation. Indeed, plumbing the darkest scenario of bleak possibilities, Mr. Anderson lays out a future with rising inflation as the Fed prints money to finance the war, a falling U.S. dollar, a falling stock market -- and rising gold. The price of gold rose yesterday despite the strong possibility that the International Monetary Fund will sell gold to help poor debtor nations with their debts. So the gold bugs, Mr. Anderson among them for the moment, are buying gold stocks as the ultimate life raft in a sinking stock market. Mr. Anderson is buying the big gold stocks on the assumption that they will get the most institutional play in a massive switch in asset allocation. On an equally gloomy note, he points out that a turndown in the U.S. utilities stocks usually leads a drop in the broad stock market by about six months. The Dow utilities index turned lower on Oct. 9, so that six months is basically up. So while the rotation out of the the "new" growth stocks and into the "old" value stocks may give some market segments and the TSE 300 a lift, it just may represent the last desperate hurrah for the market before the onset of a severe correction or worse. - If you're looking for another reason the U.S. market might lose a little momentum in the next few days, you might consider that yesterday was April 15, the combined U.S. equivalent of Canada's April 30 tax-filing day and the March 1 deadline for registered retirement savings plan contributions. Americans were pumping money into their RRSP equivalents -- individual retirement accounts -- as the April 15 deadline for contributions approached. Much of that money found its way into equities and equity mutual funds. canoe.ca

To: hunchback who wrote (31954)	4/18/1999 2:10:00 PM
From: hunchback	Respond to of 116768

IMF set to release new forecasts as crisis eases marketwatch.newsalert.com