To: Jeff Lins who wrote (11983 ) 4/17/1999 4:52:00 AM From: Neil H Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 12559
MARKET TRENDS Gigabit Ethernet--The Market Takes off Volume 29, Number 4 April 1999, pp. 32-35 By Greg Collins, senior analyst, and Tam Dell'Oro, founder of the Dell'Oro Group. The following is an abstract of the printed article: Ethernet and Fast Ethernet have proved resoundingly successful, but how will Gigabit Ethernet fare? This article discusses the prospects for Gigabit Ethernet switches in terms of the market size, pricing and the players. Market Size The market for Gigabit Ethernet grew from 12,000 ports in 1997 to 222,000 ports in 1998--nearly a 20-fold increase. Several events in 1998 set the stage for this strong growth. First, the IEEE ratified the Gigabit Ethernet standard (802.3z) in June. Second, all major networking vendors and numerous startups began shipping Gigabit Ethernet products. Third, it soon became clear that Gigabit Ethernet is a reality, and network managers began to budget for these new products. Gigabit Ethernet shipments will likely grow eightfold to 1.8 million ports in 1999 and to nearly 18 million ports by the end of 2002. Pricing Manufacturers' prices for Gigabit Ethernet products fell from $1,700 per port in 1997 to $1,200 in 1998--a 29 percent decline. This decline contributed to the sharp increase in shipments during 1998. Players The 20 vendors who sell Gigabit Ethernet fall into three categories: Small firms who developed the technology on their own (Alteon Networks, www.alteon.com; Extreme Networks, www.extremenetworks.com; Foundry Networks, www.foundrynet.com; and XLNT, www.xlnt.com). Large firms who developed the technology on their own (3Com, www.3com.com; Xylan, www.xylan.com--the latter to be acquired by Alcatel, www.alcatel.com). Large firms who acquired the technology (Alcatel; Fore Systems, www.fore.com; Cabletron, www.cabletron.com; Lucent, www.lucent.com; Nortel, www.nortelnetworks.com; and Cisco, www.cisco.com). The Future Gigabit Ethernet will fare quite well, particularly the products destined for the core and distribution layers of the network. Gigabit Ethernet's success in the WAN/edge layer will depend on its ability to render obsolete the technology used in legacy routers and their successors. Regards Neil