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Technology Stocks : Newbridge Networks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pat mudge who wrote (10860)	4/17/1999 8:58:00 AM
From: Glenn McDougall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18016

Turbulent days ahead Local technology firms receive mixed forecast By SUSAN TAYLOR -- Ottawa Sun An insatiable demand for digital information is sending out shockwaves and rattling business to its foundations. The latest predictions from PricewaterhouseCoopers' 10th Technology Forecast touch every sector of this region's hi-tech industry -- but shifts in the telecommunications trade will have the most dramatic impact. The explosive growth in data traffic will continue and overtake voice traffic by 2001 or 2002, said Terry Retter, a consultant in PricewaterhouseCoopers' Technology Centre in California. The shift in network traffic is driving huge demand for gear that carries digital data. 'SUPERCARRIERS' The expanding market, in turn, means takeovers and consolidation in the telco sector. "The big guys are getting bigger and the little guys have to get faster and meaner," Retter said. Just four or five "supercarriers" will serve the market in 2002, researchers predict, with up to 4,000 national and regional niche players. The odds aren't good for this region's telco giants -- Nortel and Newbridge -- to emerge on top, said Retter. "I don't think there's going to be a dominant Canadian player," he said. SECOND FIDDLE In massive markets such as China, which is just now starting to lay communication pipes, area firms may play second fiddle, he said. Despite that, Nortel yesterday announced it's making major inroads in that market since its first equipment sale in 1972. During a visit from Chinese premier Zhu Rongji yesterday, Nortel chief executive John Roth announced deals worth $60 million US to expand two digital wireless networks. Roth also announced investments of more than $30 million US into joint venture Guandong Nortel to locally manufacture wireless gear for the Chinese market. Retter said the region's software firms may face an easier market with the blistering demand expected to mushroom for electronic commerce tools. E-commerce is predicted to be a multi-trillion trade in three years, with business doubling every 120 to 160 days. That's good news for companies such as Corel Corp., which pins part of its revenue growth on the Web. What's bad news is that Linux, another Corel growth hopeful, isn't expected to flourish, Retter said. Unless a company adopts the operating system and offers support services, corporations aren't likely to use the system. "That's the potential weak link in the chain."