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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Catcher who wrote (20645)	4/17/1999 9:25:00 AM
From: PMS Witch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

Good news: The Globe & Mail, Canada's business newspaper, has featured MSFT in its 'Stars and Dogs' section. MSFT was given 'pooch' status! I've no indicators which even approach this newspaper's usefulness. Their accuracy at picking tops and bottoms is unparalleled. Since they publish the dead opposite of what really comes to pass, one needs to 'know the code' to use this wonderful indicator for investing. Have a good weekend, PW.

To: Catcher who wrote (20645)	4/18/1999 12:57:00 AM
From: John F. Dowd	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

Catcher: Who can figure this one out? This rotation thing baffles me. To make the math simple let us assume we own MSFT at 100 with a basis of 0. We sell MSFT and after we pay tax are left with 72 to 80. We then invest the proceeds in "Beer Cans of America Inc. (cyclical)" and it goes up 50% to 98 - 120. We now sell BCOA and rotate back to techs. After tax we will have at best 120 -(40x.28)=109 (9% above what we started with ) to reinvest in MSFT and lo and behold we missed the big initial move in techs as their earnings explode. These rotaters must be perfect in their timing to squeeze out the profit to make the round trip worth while. I can't see leaving growth stocks to jump into low priced Dogs of the Dow just to be drawn back to the real leadership in our economy. In short I don't get it either!#? JFD

To: Catcher who wrote (20645)	4/18/1999 2:40:00 AM
From: Brian Malloy	Respond to of 74651

Just a few observations: Everyone knows what MSFT will do this quarter. They told us ahead of time a month or so ago. Of course a penny or two may be added, they told us that as well. Thus, earnings are already factored into the stock price. So the likelihood of "anticipated earnings" causing a price spike is low. Previous six weeks MSFT traded above the 10 Day moving average. The last four days we are under the 10 day and the slope of it is declining. Given the way the NAZ and S&P are acting and seasonal/monthly historical trends, it would not be surprising to see the markets give up another 4-6%. 1. Last week (now the week before last) starting about Wed/Thur the four horsemen of the NAZ stopped making new highs. 2. The triumvartate of the INET also stopped making new highs. Yet, the other Inets continued to rally - a classic blow off top was developing. 3. The smart money was holding back while the individuals were running to a different beat. Message 8976004 Now we also learn over the weekend that Fidelity has been selling techs. This news alone in the past has been enough to drop the techs. We could be down Monday morning - could be a good buy point or maybe not. Longer term like the last couple of days in April or the first few days in May MSFT should be showing strength but caution would be advised this comming week and most of the week after that. IMHO