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Technology Stocks : MRV Communications (MRVC) opinions? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sector Investor who wrote (12803)	4/17/1999 12:43:00 PM
From: ahhaha	Respond to of 42804

This isn't the same company you bought two years ago. I bought in 1994 when the CEO would send the quarterlies personally to me. At that time the company was a parts supplier. I sold when the hoopla was not being met with convincing results. In January on Silkroad thread you asked me what I thought about MetroFusion. I had been somewhat critical of WDM because it doesn't scale well, costs rise exponentially with scale and in several years its absolute technological limit will be taxed by load, but when I read the specs on MetroFusion, I was very impressed. That model is somewhat indifferent to whose optical pump you have. They have a terrific and efficient topology. The topology is the key where in the past network topology was more incidental. You fitted it to the application. With Metrofusion your investment is protected since if WDM components improve, you swap them in and out and if the pump paradigm changes, again it is only a matter of changing support components. So if a carrier wants a good Metro model which will last and wants a complete solution with a vendor which is adequately robust, MRV is the place to go. Metrofusion is a big project to build for one metro area, so MRV needs to show comprehensive solution in at least one metro area. If they can do that, you have a major player. It will take time. I remember CSCO 5 years ago in similar a position without the big vision. They acquired their way to size. Pulling off Metrofusion is going to be extremely difficult, but they only need to do it well that first time. They have to build their way to size. Building is more valuable than buying. It is a common mistake of the "clean balance sheet" type of investor to mistakenly assume a little water added to the boat threatens a scuttle. If baggage is necessary to accomplish the goal, then the baggage will disappear in the rush of the crowd to board the departing train. I have made the clean freak error too many times. Growth companies can swap debt for equity and not have the stock price slow in its advance. Down this line you shouldn't listen to CCs. They're a waste of your time and they create unnecessary mistaken judgements. The principals will only discuss what is known. Under questioning they say things which cause you to develop views that are as inaccurate as accurate. Can you expect to know the company as well as an analyst? Do analysts at a CC divulge what they know? Do you need your hand held? That's why the stock accumulation technique I suggested is more important than the news. For an outsider its how you go about creating a position that is the crux of the matter. The only requirement is that you having a good idea company. That means the outcome of the company is practically indifferent to who sits in management. You have your position. For you the way is faith, hope, and ignorance. If it breaks 5 1/2, sell it all, else hold, pray and stay away.