*Iridium/ICO/Globalstar [and the other one - whatsitsname] Tero, you said: "... I said a year ago that Iridium will probably fail and that it does not have a commercial reason to exist - it's a vanity project conceived by engineers. Ask Maurice about it or read through the Nokia thread messages of the early 1998. I'm not obsessive enough to do that. No, I don't think that Globalstar will not turn into a profit engine...."
I do recall something along those lines, but I must boast that long, long before you made comment, I had made the appropriate predictions which have come to pass. Namely, that Iridium should not launch and if it did, it would probably cover the cost but not much else, while Globalstar would be hugely profitable. I don't think it was too early in 1998 you made the comment, but maybe so, since Iridium was well underway by then. Maybe an enthusiast will hunt down your comment.
But your comment was wrong anyway. Yes, it was conceived by engineers, and yes, they went for a technologically challenging solution rather than a boring bent pipe. But it was primarily a make work project for Motorola to extract money from shareholders, banks and subscribers. True enough, the same applies to Globalstar, ICO and Eurotunnel, but the likely outcome for Iridium seemed clear, to me anyway, 3 years ago. ICO and Eurotunnel are both government associated projects carried out by private contractors with neither likely to make a profit for the ever suffering shareholders.
Globalstar is different. It is a make work project, but the shareholding is different -- Loral has bet heavily on it with their own money. Qualcomm has taken a minor stake in it as a reward for being a promoter and organizer. The design and technology is also different and will be successful.
Neither ICO nor Iridium have commercial reasons to exist but it seems they both are determined to fully capitalize their projects - at least in the first incarnation. I don't think we'll be seeing expansions or second constellations of either of them. Nor whatsitsname.
Now, just a bit of help with your English, which is why you joined SI if you recall. You wrote, "No, I don't think that Globalstar will not turn into a profit engine". The correct expression is "It is isn't that I don't think Globalstar won't make a profit, it's just that they won't be unable to not make a loss." Alternatively, if you are not a Pom, you would write "I think Globalstar will turn into a profit engine".
As Americans would say, that's being positive. In the commie, socialist world of Europe in general and Pomland in particular, negatives tend to get a lot of airtime. In the Yankee See, Yankee Do world, they go for affirmation, supportive comments, being positive and centred, though cognitive dissonance is an unfortunate result of excessive 'positivity'. For example, it is beyond belief that they really didn't understand that the Serbs would react about the only way they could, which was to immediately continue with clearing Kosovo. They also seem bamboozled that their 3 soldiers would be taken prisoner. Believe it or not, that is what happens to enemy soldiers. For Clinton and co to say that Serbia has no right to hold them is close to mad. There is no 'right' in such a situation, there is only 'might'. Might as in power rather than probability, though chance will play a good part in proceedings.
So, seeing the shambles, with 3 soldiers looking pretty miserable, the USA is perplexed and suffers cognitive dissonance [where perception and reality part company - the greatest country and power the planet has ever seen is held hostage by some rotten little two-bit bunch of Serbs, whatever they are and wherever they are. I know Xena's pal Madeleine, who will dislike being involved in an act of hostile atavism, knows where Serbia is because she used to live in the neighbourhood, but I bet most wouldn't have a clue].
It seems to me that the complete shambles could have been avoided by declaring Kosovo a United Nations protectorate. Before that can be done, there needs to be a decent constitution for the UN with a federal system.
But I digress...
Maurice
PS: For Nokians wondering what this has to do with Nokia, Globalstar is going to eat your lunch. Yes, CDMA will cover all of Europe before the year is out and the frustrated GSM subscribers will be able to buy a funky little L M Ericsson [Orbitel Division] GSM/CDMA handset which will work anywhere in Europe and nearly everywhere else [by the end of 2000 anyway]. The minutes might be surprisingly cheap because there are 12 billion of them per year and they all need to be sold.
So in all those GSM Swiss Cheese holes where you get no signal, you'll be able to call to the heavens for CDMA to come to your aid. |
