Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (1799)	4/17/1999 11:23:00 AM
From: brian h	Respond to of 34857

Tero, Could you find the column where I said that GSM rules the world? What I have stated is the consensus opinion of several industry experts. GSM will have a 50-54% market share in 2005 and IS-95 will have a 18-24% share. That means that most claims about CDMA's future are ridiculously over-blown. It also means that GSM has the pricing power to hurt the profitability of companies concentrating on CDMA phones. If you claim that GSM has a majority share (50-54%)of wireless phone market is true, would it be my idea of "GSM rules the World"? May be I use the term loosely just like you on "without sales growth and profit margin". But wait a second. If IS-95 has a 18-24% market share, would you think it will not have any growth rate from the current 7 or 8% market? Also, May be QCOM's Dr. J and shareholders like me can just sit down and relax to let your Nokia and MOT fight for CDMA phones market share while Dr. J can think of new toys to spend his R&D money on. So there is no worry about the sales growth and profit margin on CDMA market, Right? That is using the consensus view of telcomm. market in 2005. Do not forget Q's business is not just terestial CDMA market. You did not disagree that G* may be a profit machine if it is successful. Q is going to get 6% profit through G* plus management fee for this venture. Why does Q need to worry about "no sales growth or low profit margin"? Q also has OmniTRACs which has a 95% market share though not a mutilmillion outfit and the coming Wireless Knowledge. I do not know why you are so worry about QCOM's low sales growth and low profit margin. Your Nokia and my QCOM are simply going a different route in term of company focus. I am glad that you recognize that CDMA market is there. While we may disagree on if QCOM should continue to be a CDMA phone manufacturer or a CDMA ASICs provider, QCOM is going to make a lot of money no matter which way you want to cut in with that 18-24% world market share in 2005. As for additional CDMA market share overtakes GSM's world, it is any body's guess. Your guess is as good as mine. We just have to wait and see. If CDMA gain more shares I will be richer. If not I will be still doing well with your Nokia or other companies helps. Best, Brian H. PS. I have not contributed to your web page hits yet. It will be a long wait before I do that. Sorry.

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (1799)	4/17/1999 3:58:00 PM
From: marginmike	Respond to of 34857

It also didnt include 28 Milion from Russian liscence. It was stated right before Japan, and others went online. Where is that CDMA 6160, you told us it would be here in March? By the way slim phone will be here by June, I wonder who will get to market first. Oh yah you should talk to your friends at BAM, they seem to be having some problems with their Nokia handsets. What about the 16% defect rate? What about two different studies by investement banks that rated Q phones most recomended. Everen coverd a few hundred stores, you covered 20. I guess your poll was more acurate. P.S. I am sure all those TSC readers appreciated your bad advise!

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (1799)	4/18/1999 5:21:00 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 34857

Tero, 50- 54% market share for GSM in 2005 when IS-95 will have 18-24% is an odd prediction. I presume cdma2000 will be in there somewhere and it's clone W-CDMA will be there too. These seem excessively precise predictions, which I'm prone to make as well, but mine are usually right [not to be outdone in the boasting department]. GSM has no 'pricing power' to hurt CDMA efforts. Maybe you just mean 'economies of scale' which is certainly an advantage. As you have said, Nokia can do a LOT of development with their big and profitable income from their GSM sales so they'll probably not be lagging in CDMA handset sales for long. Maybe you need to explain 'pricing power' if I've misunderstood. Qualcomm's sales growth is pure exponentiality - the graphs are there for all to see. Profit margins on handsets are normal. Profit margin on the IPR is huge. Profit margins on infrastructure were non-existent. Qualcomm's licensing revenue is low because most companies are now licensed. It is the royalty stream which is beginning. Maybe you used licensing revenue and royalty revenue as interchangeable terms. I think of licensing revenue as the up front licensing fee. Royalties are the cut from the wholesale price of the handset or basestation. Royalties would also be flat because wholesale prices have been dropping heavily, so doubling the number of handsets sold would not double the royalty stream. But it would double the ASIC sales revenue, assuming the price of those is holding for now. It would also double the ASIC royalties from the 10% of ASICs which are made by licensees. I'm sure you don't think the claims I make about CDMA's future are ridiculously overblown - especially since I've been a lot more right than you or Bill Frezza [who hasn't been resurrected for a flogging for a while]. In fact, not to boast too much, I am amazed at just how right I am! Now if only I could get 30,000 clicks! CDMA IS the future! GSM will be an interesting anachronism before 2010. Qualcomm will have a market capitalization bigger than Intel, Microsoft and Dell [or Compaq or IBM, whichever is the largest] combined. Now, that is not an idle over-blown claim, it is a certainty. Investors can take it to the bank. Which of course will be the Q!Bank. I might have to add Credit Suisse, Bank of England or perhaps The Federal Reserve, to the Q! market capitalisation if they pull that one off. You left off the Dell aspect of the trio... Maurice