To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (42485 ) 4/17/1999 1:14:00 PM From: Gary Burton Read Replies (1) | Respond to
Slider-A few thoughts if I may--As you know, when the Primary Trend is in one direction, all retraces are temporary and give way to resumption of the Primary Trend. When the Primary Trend is in the PROCESS of reversing, it usually doesn't do it on a dime, but more like back and forth sideways for awhile. When the Primary Trend has reversed, all retraces then become partial and temporary and give way to the resumption of the new Primary Trend... As I see it, the 5 month sideways movement Oct-Mar 1st could simply have been the process which the Primary Trend needed to go through in order to change from Down to Up. And during such time, the trend was sideways so trading won out over buy and hold...But as of Mar 1, Buy and hold may now win out over trading as the Primary Trend may have reversed...As I see it at the moment, we are in the process of a 5 wave sequence up but are only in (iii) of such sequence. We may be at the end of 5 of the sequence by say Monday, April 25-whereupon we may give back 50% of the net movement up from 60.5--afterwhich another 5 wave up sequence may well begin. As of this minute, I'm waiting for the completion of the current 5 wave sequence before contemplating selling. As I see it, we are still in 3 of the 5, although 3 may end Apr 19/20am to be followed by a little blip down for 4 then up again for 5. When I think we may be nearing the end of 5, I will likely sell and await the somewhat larger retrace to come. If and when we approach 77-80 in a 5th, I'll likely be out for the time being But, as measured in hours, I think we are not yet there.. Since your strategy is to usually sell say 2/3rds through a move, I'm not at all surprised that you are moving towards the sidelines. I like to do that in 5, you like to do it in 3, fearing we may not have a 5. When we were in the PROCESS of changing the Primary Trend from down to up, 3's were the rule (abc) not 5's. I suspect it is now 5's, which is the crux of where we may digress.
