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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (11311)	4/17/1999 1:14:00 PM
From: Mike Learner	Respond to of 99985

Here is the latest "Industry Indexes": dbc.com Mike LG, Happy Birthday

To: donald sew who wrote (11311)	4/17/1999 3:35:00 PM
From: jjs_ynot	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Don, In your Index Update you cited a peak to peak interval of 14 to 17 days. If one says that the last peak in the SPX was April 13 or 14 wouldn't that put the next peak around April 29 or 30 as opposed to May 6? Just trying to comprehend. Dave

To: donald sew who wrote (11311)	4/17/1999 5:06:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

>>I hope we can get some discussion on the MDA thread as to what sectors may be the next to set a top and which sectors may bounce.<< Well according to my quick read , and I mean quick as I still have to look at the weekly charts etc when/if I get some time, I think the daily chart are looking fairly promising to the upside for the DRG drug sector, HCX healthcare, IIX and INX for internet, XCI computer tech, and RLX retail. These are due to the recent heavy selling, the support lines/fork tines they are near etc. Note I do not have buy signals on most of these yet and I have not looked at the weekly charts yet and hope to do so and update them also on the MDA site. For short side prospects, XOI and OIX Oil, CEX Chemical and FPP Paper look over bought. Oil is not at a resistance point at this time however my system kicked out a class 3 sell signal for a buy in Monday. I will probably ignore it until it is either confirmed by a drop below support or it climbs and morphs into a class 2 or 1 sell. So far class 3s as can be seen on my charts at the MDA site have called temporary tops but the drops were hardly worth the effort and lasted only about a week. The larger indexes are interesting as you noted. I keep multiple charts and on one of my DOW charts as I mentioned before, the channel is being pushed every day by the DOW onthe top resistance line. It has only been moving up by the allowable increasing limit due to the positive slope of the line. The NAS 100 or NDX is sitting on it's bottom support line and any further drop will spell trouble if it stays violated 2 days or so. Since MSFT, EMC and some other heavy hitters report this week and have sold off recently, I expect the press to put a positive spin on things no matter what unless they miss huge and a rebound to happen although I want to see some confirmation before buying again there. The SPX which tends to tow the OEX with it I think is useless to speculate since it managed to close within 2 points of the Max Pain implying that last week was nothing more than option expiration games. The big money moved it where it wanted it and now we should get to really see where it is going. I have a few other random thoughts. Since AMG data showed a drop in inflows for this last week, would it not make sense to sell off the big names and buy the small guys to mask money being drawn out of the market. You can raise the price of a small cap pretty fast with a relatively small amount of cash quick. If you sold i million shares of MSFT and pocketed half the money for a rainy day and with the other half bought multiple thinly traded stocks, you could almost keep the index up and make breadth look better when in reality you were getting defensive. If the all clear were given, then you could take the half in your pocket of cash and re-enter the big boy NASDAQ stocks along with your reduced intake for Mutual funds and spike the indexes back up again for a blow off top. Am I full of Manure on this idea? Good Luck, I have to get back to my gardening before the wife realizes I am playing hooky and am on SI again <ggg> Lee

To: donald sew who wrote (11311)	4/17/1999 8:00:00 PM
From: stockycd	Respond to of 99985

Donald, I have now change back to being bearish for the period from now until early JULY. Ahhhhhh....It sure is good to have the undiluted, full-flavored Don back. <ggg> I have been doing some analysis on the TYX. If we move higher next week...Ouch. I think there will be an interesting show when we reach TYX 57.00. I agree that this market is toast. Poor saps buying small caps. Guess I'll be in and out of PUTs from now to July. I just cannot trade consumer cyclicals, oil, gold, defense--BORING. My biggest fears are that this WAR and Y2K will have the greatest effect on equities and it will get very ugly! When the A/D line starts back down, watch out. Chris