Great story Mike..and always possible, but I somehow doubt that will be the scenario ( out of so many positive scenarios) that will take place. But you may be right. And then there is the story of the old rooster and the young rooster ..lol..but some other time..
OFF TOPIC here....but a good article about football draft selection that seems to me to have some bearing on stock selection...
For Those in the Know, Less Is Often More
By Thomas Boswell
Saturday, April 17, 1999; Page D01
At noon in the Theater at Madison Square Garden, everybody at the 1999 NFL draft will act like they know what they're doing. And they'll honestly believe it. That's what is so scary. And that's what leads them so far astray.
Experts from every team and media outlet will have their precise rankings of players at every position, through more than 200 spots. They'll claim to know the "best athlete available." People, with tones of enormous authority, will insist that a key decision has been reduced to a perfectly manageable choice between two, or at most, three, players.
Last-minute trades will be swung with amazing self-assurance as a player, plus a No. 2 pick, will be swapped for multiple picks from another team. Let's see, we'll give you our No. 1 pick in 2000, plus that third-rounder we got from the Rams and we'll even throw in my uncle's old chain saw.
Here's what you absolutely will never hear.
Some problems are insoluble. There are far too many variables and unknowns. The smartest human could work for 10 years with all available information and there's still no way -- absolutely no way -- to know with anything even remotely approaching certainty whether Heath Shuler can play quarterback in the NFL until he actually tries to do it.
So, as you watch the NFL draft, including the Redskins' picks, remember this: Everybody thinks they're in control. Everybody thinks that, even though they may make mistakes, they surely have enough information to make great choices. What no one will admit, even to himself, is that a college draft is far more of a crapshoot than it is a science. That's just too frightening a thought when your job and your reputation are at stake.
As a cognitive psychologist is likely to tell you, the NFL draft is a vicious bear trap, perfectly designed to embarrass general managers. The more diligent and knowledgeable they are, the more likely they are to make awful picks.
Thus, the reason Redskins General Manager Charley Casserly has such a poor record with No. 1 draft picks may not be because he is incompetent, but, perhaps, because he is so inundated with information.
Ironically, as soon as experts lose a bit of their excess self-assurance about their predictions, their results improve, according to studies. Could that be why Casserly, in later draft rounds, falls back on his vast experience and common sense -- and usually makes great choices?
Psychologists call this recurrent dilemma the difference between the "inside view" and the "outside view." Insiders, whether they are lawyers or teachers, trust their expertise and take everything on a case-by-case basis. Each student, each client, each draft pick is absolutely unique and requires enormous detailed study. Their underlying assumption: I can find the truth.
Unfortunately, the more complex the problem and the more it requires predictions about the future, the worse the "inside view" performs. Even when experts are told about the inherent problem, they still fall for it. The term is called "the illusion of validity."
On the other hand, the "outside view" is basically Keep It Simple, Stupid. Think big picture. Don't kid yourself that you can know the unknowable. Assume your worst-case scenario is much worse than you think. (Remember Desmond Howard, Michael Westbrook, etc.) Then, take your best shot. Better yet, if you can trade a sexy unknown pick for a couple of known commodities, you should probably do it. Remember crafty George Allen, who never met a draft pick he didn't hate.
Take the case of Heisman Trophy winner Ricky Williams. The "inside view" focuses on the details -- his recent weight gain, his unusual agent (rapper Master P) and his relatively unspectacular recent NFL workouts. The "outside view" is that, for four years, the big, fast, popular Texas tailback produced as many highlight film touchdown runs -- in which he made every defense he ever faced look like its shoelaces were tied together -- as any player in NCAA history.
So, maybe it would be smart to draft him. Or trade up to draft him.
The Redskins, it might be noted, were relieved in the last 48 hours that the Colts traded away running back Marshall Faulk -- tipping their hand that they intend to take Williams with the No. 4 overall pick, one spot ahead of the Redskins.
This week, both Casserly and Coach Norv Turner were more comfortable discussing Georgia cornerback/kick returner Champ Bailey as their possible first pick. The "inside view" -- the expert consensus that always grows more sure of itself as the draft approaches -- loves Bailey (the next Deion), just as it now has doubts about the previously adored Williams.
Let's boil it down this way. If Williams somehow is still available in the draft for the Redskins, the "outside view" is that such a potential superstar is seldom available. Don't think. Just grab him.
The probability is that the Redskins' obvious choice will be Bailey. Beware the comfortable "inside view." There's a strong chance he's not as good as the think-alike experts believe. And the worst-case scenario is probably greater than most imagine. One NFL coach this week called him a "great athlete" but "not the finished product yet" as a cornerback because he had to spend time returning kicks and catching passes at Georgia.
If the Redskins are offered three attractive draft choices for their gaudy first-round pick, the skeptical, keep-it-simple-stupid outside view is: Take it.
© Copyright 1999 The Washington Post Company
but as the great old Wal Street saying goes ....goes for pros in any field..." To err is human...to get paid for it is divine"
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