To: Ron Bower who wrote (2821 ) 4/17/1999 10:40:00 PM From: Tom Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 2951
Ron, I don't like economies qualified only by financial markets, and liquidity therein. It's the same story being played-out again. Hot money, hot market. But, then, that's what the Hang Seng's about -- volatility. It's also, right now, about too much money chasing too few scrip. If you're making good head-way with your investments, that's great. I'm forced to wait yet, until these economies reveal something more in the way of a footing. I've never had my face ripped-off by these markets, and I'm not about to permit it now. (Thailand didn't count. I was being stubborn.) Am currently considering September puts on a Hong Kong derivative. We'll see whether liquidity is all it seems, and all it takes. The U.S. new paradigm crowd is grousing about their financial markets, even as liquidity is being mopped-up a bit. They're also accustomed to easy money and a regulatory authority that's best described as indifferent."It's early days," cautions Tim Condon, regional economist for Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong and a former World Bank official in Southeast Asia. "Banks aren't lending - that's why economic output is not growing." As he looks out over the Chao Phraya river from the top of his imposing Thai Farmers Bank head office, Banthoon allows: "Recovery is in sight, but you need binoculars to see it." The Japan Centre for Economic Research has just lowered its forecast. It not only expects the economy to shrink again this year, but to continue to do so for the next five years. This view is strongly supported by latest news. Output fell in February, though it had been widely forecast to rise. Unemployment has just hit a new record high and consumption is falling. It's been confirmed that foreign funds are placing significant share investment in Hong Kong lately. Some rotating-in from Europe. Beneficiaries are the usual suspects. The Hong Kong blue chips are now trading somewhere around an 18 multiple. For anyone that's interested: HSBC announced that the shares will split at 1:3 on July 3, with the new shares available for trading on July 5, 1999 (Monday). At the same time, the basic calculation will be based on US$. All these measures aim at for a listing of HSBC in the US New York market. HSBC has been carrying the market. They are, afterall, 22% of it. -----