I agree in one respect that comparisons don't necessarily hurt a company but on the other hand I can also see how it would. Ballard is a benchmark. I do not speak or compare Global to it to say Ballard is history, the competition is good. Ive done a fair amount of reading into both companies. Its like this, Ballard seems to be experiencing the same problems. They have even switched directions somewhat on the fuel at one time, but from all I have read they have not been able to overcome a few or more fundamental problems, some have to do with cost, weight, efficiency, size, etc. Ballard seems to have gotten to this point where alot of the problems have been ironed out, however it still seems as though they still have the same fundamental problems, a big one being cost.
I liken the problem this way, lets say you are buying a house, you have one major requirement for a house and a whole bunch of secondary requirements. Every house you look at fits the major requirement but all the other requirements arent fufilled, do you beat yourself up looking for that perfect yet illusive house, or do you take 2 steps back, perhaps reconsider the approach, and then move forward? I see Ballard as perhaps needing to take 2 steps back before they can go forward. Part of what Global has may formulate a solution for Ballard.
To me, the faster Global moves to Ballards level, the more it hurts Ballard. Im not saying I want to see Ballard hurt, its a big market. If Global can get around some of these major issues which plauge Ballard, then yes, it will hurt Ballard. Having a car at a car show, testing it, having cars in the field on a trial basis on California is one thing, but, if you cant get the car to the showroom floor or find anyone with the bucks to buy it, or cant get over public perception of hydrogen should their reformer not be used, yes you have a problem. The fundamentals of Globals technology at this point seem to suggest they may have a possible solution. When you find out how simple it is for them to manufacture their sell you will be surprised. (Im talking about the membrane). This has many implications for cost. Ive hear comments saying but how can we sell it for so much money when it was so simple to make. Im not talking about the entire cell, just the membrane. There are alot of things that may produce some answer, to me, even perhaps make Ballard take a step back before forward. People see Ballard having a monopoly, there now seems to be another player in the market, I cant see how at some point how that may not effect perception of that company. The addition of competition also may indicate that they need to make further price reductions in the cost of their product. After all, if Globals cell does end up costing a lot less than Ballards the market is going to buy that which it finds affordable. Even if Ballard gets to market before us (assuming we will) what will consumers buy once they reach the market, the cheaper product.
I do however agree that yes competition could be good for both. However at this point the exposure Ballard has given to the public is nothing but good for us. The fact we have a different approach to the same problem is good too (i.e. sofc vs. pem cell). The value of Ballard in the industry should propel Global to a point close to them (assuming development and production proceed without any major setbacks etc.) The closer we get to Globals heels, the hotter this is going to get. If and I say if, more results come out showing how the Global technology avoids the problems from Ballards, then yes, I do think someone is going to get hurt, and perhaps loose the position at the top of the totem pole.
In final, I do not live in a fantasy and think that Global is not going to have any problems, however short of power output, cost, and weight, many of the Ballard problems have come from ancillary devices which support or provide fuel for the Ballard system as well as outside fuel infastructure. The infastructure alone is a huge expense/retrofit to which I have seen no solution to. Iam an investor in Global, I do not wish to trash Ballard at all, but to me the mere fact we are on a different path to the same result gives me hope. Id rather take a different road which we have heard may have promise than travel the same road and hit the same potholes. Who knows, Ballard may solve them. This is just the beginning for Global, I hope it goes well for them, much the same I hope Ballard succeeds as well. Many of the points I bring up are not able to be addressed at this point. We are both on the path to the fuel cell holy grail, Ballard has a long head start, Im hoping our different approach to getting to the top of the mountain succeeds. In any event it would be nice to both get to the top. However when we are the underdog, we are going to put emphasis on our differences to give us the strength to leap forward ahead of the leader, at the end of the race however, Im sure both teams however take pride in everyone reaching the top.
You see Global has been able to sit back and watch Ballard climb the mountain, see what path Global has taken, and been able to see their problems. Ballard has so much money into their solution, it would be hard for them to take the extra step back to examine a different solution. At what point however does it become more cost effective to perhaps abandon the trail, head down the mountain a little, and choose a slightly different trail. I cant say that Global is going to pick a trail that has a smooth ride, but, they know what the stumbling blocks for Ballard are, they can take a different approach to those blocks, and perhaps choose a slightly different trail. Will we hit any potholes? Who knows? Im sure we will? Will we hit a gorge without a bridge? That anyones guess.
Before I even looked at Global I looked at Ballard, their technology, their news, even hundreds and hundreds of chat posts. I do not believe everything I hear. I looked at Ballard with an open mind as well, not looking for their problems, however at the same time one could not help seeing them. To understand one, you must understand the other.
This is a Global thread, so we will most likely address the Ballard weaknesses to emphasize our strength, however at the end of the game I hope nobody get left laying out in the field with a broken leg.
Sorry abouth the length, my hope in our success comes from our differing direction or path. I believe we will have problems. Will we overcome them or hit any too big to surmount and bring this product to market is anyones guess? |
