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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (11323)	4/17/1999 11:04:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 99985

HI LG; I meant to say I can be wrong with out any reservations..<G> Being we will pay for this war first at the gas pump, I do suggest a few oil stocks, the XLE is a fairly good basket. ( we also buy a lot more oil than we are told about during a war ) Some where maybe this thread I was buying ESM back in FEB. it was the 25th to be exact and I mentioned it as steal for longer term investors under while under $10, it's more conservative than XLE ( less risk ) but it's profit is joined at the hip to XLE I had some ESM but traded it in for the real thing, now I'm toying with the idea of when to write some covered calls. A lot of the market looks undecided but oil has the war on it's side; if we don't blow up the world, & in that case it won't make any difference will it. <G> While I think most people will be looking at the "price" of oil and the stocks will do knee jerk moves as the oil price moves ( because the market got no brains.) Big oil companies can make profit even on a lower prices as long as they get volume So with a war in gear the Government ( tax payer ) buys a lot of oil & the producers will make money even if the price don't go up. I might add most prices at the pumps, and shortages always seem to show up ( after the war ) as then they got to do something to make up for the loss of volume We have never had a oil shortage that wasn't fabricated, I was running supplies to fully loaded ships sitting on anchor during every shortage we had. Jim

To: HairBall who wrote (11323)	4/18/1999 8:54:00 AM
From: j g cordes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

an interesting twist if you've been doing this a while.. Within an email this morning, this short paragraph by John Dawe, caught my attention. "What makes on-line day traders different is that, as a rule, they develop their own investment (read speculation) strategies and do not rely on advice from a traditional stockbroker. Their research techniques are usually informal and may include the use of pre-packaged, or customized, computer models. Some of these models produce 'technical analysis' cues which give buy and sell signals based on the direction, or size, of price and volume movements in the stocks they follow. The underlying idea being that there is so much trading volume taking place today that a careful observer can capitalize on the purchase and sale of stocks which fall outside of 'trading ranges' or pass through 'resistance levels'. In a nutshell, the on-line day trader bets that he or she has a better read of the market than the person on the other side of the trade and can act fast enough to make an arbitrage profit from an 'abnormal' price movement." The bolded portion seems obvious but is rather insightful as it highlights just what it is a stochastics, bollinger, MACD, gap fill, moving average confirmation or other type of TA trade really is. One's betting one has a "better read" than the persons on the other side and can act fast enough to make a profit as the stock returns to norm. Occasionally abnormal movements, or recurring cycles break trend entirely, which requires traders to know their limitations. Jim