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To: Thomas M. who wrote (171)5/20/1999 8:29:00 AM
From: Cynic 2005  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 309
 
"Productivity gains" sponsored by the Fed actions include time off from water-coolers. 'nuff said!
nytimes.com
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May 20, 1999

Some Abandon the Water Cooler for Stock Trading on the Internet
By ROBERT D. HERSHEY Jr.
n Florida, a young dentist tracks stocks between patients, sometimes even between an X-ray and a filling. In Washington State, a freight-company manager logs on to a financial Web site for four to six hours of his workday. A designer at a California architectural firm gets so absorbed in the market that his productivity falls 25 percent.

The long bull market and cascading advances in technology have combined to drive capitalism's main numbers game into the heart of the American workplace, with millions of wage earners, managers and entrepreneurs obsessing about Wall Street. Their obsession, in fact, far eclipses the speculative 1920's, when elevator operators and bootblacks were a chief source of what passed for information.


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"Two years ago I would have never thought I'd be into doing this," said the dentist, Norma Victores, 30, of Hialeah, Fla., who follows the market on the Internet and has bought part of her portfolio of 21 stocks and mutual funds on line. "I used to think it was just for the big-timers."

While much of the early concern about workday Internet abuse focused on pornography, the lure of the stock market has overtaken it, some specialists said. The Internet is making a lot of information available to small investors that was once accessible only to professionals.

"That's where employees are really wasting their time," said Jonathan Penn, an analyst at Giga Information Group, a firm that advises companies on information technology. "I'd definitely put that first," he added, ahead of sports, personal E-mail, chat rooms and pornography.

The flick-of-the-finger ease with which office workers and others can research, monitor and trade stocks -- often able to return instantly to their assigned tasks -- is a growing concern for employers.

Most of the people willing to discuss the issue were self-employed or worked for small companies where Internet abuses could be dealt with amicably. Larger corporations, while acknowledging the potential for abuse, generally denied that employees were using company time to trade stocks. Some devotees in the workplace said the activity could be addictive, but most simply found it a practical method for earning extra income.

So far, the Government has not been able to measure any economic effect. Michael Harper, the acting associate commissioner for productivity and technology at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, suggested that the time spent by workers on the stock market was not unlike water-cooler discussion of football or movies and might even be a partial substitute for it.

"We don't know whether they would be working or doing something else" if there was less absorption in the market, Harper said.

But according to Media Metrix Inc., a New York company that meters Internet use much the way Nielsen Media Research does television, 22.8 million Americans used Web sites on company time in March. Some 8.2 million people visited Yahoo Finance, CBS Marketwatch, Schwab, E*Trade and other financial sites at work, up from 6 million just three months earlier, the company said.

About 25 percent of all corporate Internet traffic, much of it surreptitious, is considered unrelated to work.

The stock market "is becoming a huge distraction," said Victor Woodward, a vice president at Content Technologies, which develops programs to help companies create and enforce policies for Internet use. He said corporate demand for help in curbing stock-related Web use had quadrupled in the last year. And companies face growing competition for the attention of their employees: Internet gateways like Yahoo, Go and Excite, eager to attract advertisers, use their home pages to tempt Web browsers to check stock quotes.

On-line trades account for as much as 30 percent of all buying and selling by individual investors, surveys show.

"I can't imagine that this is not a problem in the workplace," said Jill Munden, who oversees Silicon Investor Inc., the biggest financial discussion forum. She said 50 percent of Silicon Investor site visits, which averaged 20 minutes each, came during regular working hours and that "you have to believe most people don't divulge trades and research to their boss or co-workers."

The Web site for Charles Schwab, the broker accounting for more than a quarter of Internet transactions, now averages 33 million visits a day, up from 24 million in the fourth quarter of 1998, according to Daniel Hubbard, a spokesman. And actual transactions, which take only a couple of minutes, are outnumbered 26 to 1 by typically longer sessions for researching companies or mutual funds or to review portfolios.

Schwab's busiest periods, Hubbard found, coincide with the opening and closing hours of the New York Stock Exchange -- from 9:30 to 11:30 A.M. and 3:30 to 4 P.M., which falls during the workday for most people on the East Coast.

Take the case of Dean Hatfield, 36, the designer, for whom earning between $5,000 and $15,000 a month from on-line trading for much of last year began to threaten his day job.

"Instead of billing, say, 37 hours during the week, as I should have, I was billing perhaps 28," said Hatfield, who works at KRJ Design in Burlingame, Calif. "It became an issue because the revenue just wasn't coming in." Hatfield's superiors took away his Internet access, so now if he wants to go on line he must walk to another terminal, his activities easily visible. He likens it to "getting your hands caught in the cookie jar." Now, he says, "I do it on the phone or from home -- but it's not day trading anymore."

At American Fast Freight, a company in Kent, Wash., that bundles shipments into bigger units and then arranges for overseas transport, the official in charge of computers, Jeff LePage, is still struggling to find a way to "put the kibosh" on a manager who is routinely logged onto a financial site for most of the day.

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In the office, stocks may be more popular than sports, E-mail or pornography.

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"I hadn't really focused on this until it became chronic," said LePage, who has noticed a gradual decline in the unit's performance for which he blames the employee, a peer he is reluctant to confront.

LePage has switched off the employee's financial site, but the employee appears to be logging on to other people's computers. "The battle goes on," LePage said.

Then there is John Alexandrou, a 43-year-old salesman in Foster City, Calif., who said that for the last three years he has spent 30 minutes to an hour of working time a day on the market. "The adrenaline of trading options, that's got me completely hooked," Alexandrou said, adding that the fraternity of on-the-job market devotees is very large, especially in Silicon Valley. "You're not going to find very many people in this Valley who are not distracted by the stock market," he said. He insisted, however, that despite his on-the-job trading, he never failed to make his business quotas.

On-the-job Internet stock activity has been a particularly visible problem in the high-technology community on the West Coast, where much of employees' pay is in stock options and it is common for even those of low rank to have an equity stake.

None of this necessarily means that investors pay less attention to their jobs. Ross Brown, vice president of MSI Consulting, a Seattle-based management and marketing adviser to high-technology companies, says he often spends less time tending to his portfolio -- worth in the mid-six figures -- than when he used to phone orders to a broker, a process he said can mean "you've chewed up an hour of your day."

Still, the market is seen as an increasingly serious time eater by many employers, who have only recently begun to monitor Internet activity in earnest. A survey by the Society for Human Resource Management in Alexandria, Va., found 76 percent of members not bothering to monitor activity as recently as 1997.

Moreover, employees seem to have little trouble avoiding detection from casual observation.

"One second I was in E*Trade," said Hatfield, the California designer, who for a time was making more money trading than in salary. "And the next second I was doing design in Autocad," a tool of his trade.

"I could hide the day trading quite easily," he said.



To: Thomas M. who wrote (171)5/20/1999 8:45:00 AM
From: Cynic 2005  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 309
 
Sorry Tom, I am reporting the link you provided on MB thread back to you again. This thread is to chronicle the follies of the Feds and US treasury.
afr.com.au
---------------Dr Doom: gold, Murdoch, Soros

By Tony Boyd
Dr Marc Faber is the Hong Kong-based contrarian also known as Dr Doom. He writes a monthly newsletter called the Gloom, Boom and Doom report for 900 institutions and wealthy private individuals including some of Australia's better known multi-millionaires. Here he talks to Tony Boyd about his latest views.

On the gold price
Let's assume for one reason or another the psychology in the world changes in favour of an inflationary psychology or for whatever reason people say they want to own gold.

With the world's population of 6 billion people, if each person buys one gram of gold each worth about $13 that would be about 6,000 tons of gold when there is an annual supply of 2,500 tons. The swing factor will be dramatic.

On gold and central banks
I am prepared to bet with anyone in Australia that the central banks, which today are selling gold at less than $US300 an ounce, will go back and buy it at more than $US1,000 a ounce in a few years' time.

I am convinced it's going to be that way because I think eventually the power will be taken away from the central banks and the world will go back to some kind of financial system that has automatic built-in stabilisers.

The gold standard had some faults but the whole industrial revolution and the tremendous growth in the world that occurred between 1800 and 1930 occurred under a gold standard, so you cannot dismiss the fact that the gold standard had some merits.

On a soaring gold price
I think the gold price will go up so dramatically that governments will introduce excessive profit taxes on producers or, worse, expropriate them altogether.

If the gold price moves from say $US280 at the present time to $US400, gold shares will go up by up to 200 per cent, easily. So you have more leverage in gold shares, but if the gold price goes to more than $US1,000 then I would worry about excess profit taxes.

On central bankers
The whole world believes that the central bankers are so smart they can steer the world economy forward and backwards. Nobody can steer any market.

The markets are more powerful than people. It's a paradox in my opinion that at a time when everyone knows the planned economies have failed that there is so much faith in central bankers. I think central bankers will bring the system to the brink. Capitalism thrives on failures and success; you reward success and you punish failure. Low interest rates are preserving what's rotten in the capitalist system. If you take the bankruptcies out of the system you never get the creative destruction which is so important to rejuvenate the capitalist system.

On the US bond market sell off
Never before have foreigners purchased as many securities as a percentage of the economy in the last few years.

But in the first three months of this year, the Japanese have been net sellers of US Treasuries and their purchases of stocks has also slowed down. The Japanese think that the yen will no longer weaken much against the US dollar and secondly the key to the sharemarket in Japan, paradoxically is a weak bond market.

On Japan
The American snake oil economists like Paul Krugman say Japan should print money like water but that would weaken the yen and the Japanese would go and buy foreign assets. What you need is a stable yen. Low interest rates in Japan are not helping that country clean out its mess and establish an economic recovery.

On the Asian recovery
Exports are flat to down and foreign direct investment is falling because of the overcapacity in Asia.

In China capacity utilisation is 50 per cent. The over capacity has intensified because of the collapse in domestic demand. The high leverage in Asia is a drag on economic growth. It will take a decade for some of these Asian economies to return to pre-crisis growth levels.

On Asian stocks
Financial markets do not necessarily reflect what is happening in the real economy.

You can make 200 to 500 per cent returns in emerging markets even though their economies are in decline. Investors have so far concentrated on the big stock market capitalisation issues and they are now fully priced.

I think now the opportunities are in the second line stocks in Asia because they have not moved much.

On the US dollar and Wall St
I think in the US we are dealing with a dollar that is high and a market that is in the twilight zone, cloud cuckoo land. The trade deficit in March will be a record.

On China's economy
I am fairly sure that sooner or later they will devalue. The last time they devalued by 55 per cent in 1994. This time I expect they will devalue by no more than 20 per cent. I don't believe the economic growth figures from China. Instead of 7 or 8 per cent I think its growing at 4 or 5 per cent, but if you exclude the Potemkin villages it's more like minus 2 per cent to plus 2 per cent.

On Robert Rubin
Rubin's bail-out of Mexico in 1995 made the Asian crisis much worse. If that rescue had not happened investors would not have financed the short term borrowings of Asian countries. There would not have been the huge rally in Brady bonds and Russian sovereign debt.


On Asian real estate
When the property bubble burst in Australia in the early 1990s, properties became very cheap and you could buy buildings for less than their construction cost.

But that clearing out process has not happened in Asia. In the late 1980s in Argentina you could buy a luxury condominium for $US100,000. You can buy a luxury condominium in Copocabana in Brazil now for $US150,000 but in Thailand a luxury condominium in Bangkok costs $US450,000 and in Hong Kong a luxury condominium still costs $US3 to $US4 million.

So there is not the total destruction of wealth that is conducive to economic recovery.

On the internet
Don't overestimate the advantage of the internet. US internet companies are worth $US460 billion but they still make losses. IBM has $US6 billion in net profits. The whole hardware computer industry earns maybe $US15 billion. In America the most watched websites on the internet are porno and garbage, so forget the idea that it will make people more intelligent.

Oh, and it's still quicker to book a plane and theatre tickets using a telephone.

On hedge funds
They are not so powerful. Julian Robertson and George Soros are no more powerful than Bankers Trust and the Treasury division of Exxon.

Everybody is a hedge fund. Kerry Packer is a hedge fund and so is Rupert Murdoch. Hedge funds are a symptom of the problem and the problem is the credit system.

On loose credit
If you want to blame someone for the leverage of hedge funds then blame the central banks, the Treasuries, futures exchanges...

From 1950 to the early 80s we had controlled capitalism. Today we have a let loose capitalism with too little controls that has led to excesses in many fields. I call it capitalism overdrive and it is being powered by loose credit.