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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Craig Rogers who wrote (8139)4/18/1999 11:16:00 AM
From: Dave Funis  Respond to of 29970
 
The next 5 days doesn't really matter (unless, of course, you're brave enough to try and day-trade this stock).

Now, the next 5 years......

DF



To: Craig Rogers who wrote (8139)4/18/1999 11:18:00 AM
From: Richie  Respond to of 29970
 
Craig,

Don't know about the prediction, but let's remember the prediction and see how accurate it is on Friday........sure would be nice though after last weeks slaughter.

RichieH



To: Craig Rogers who wrote (8139)4/18/1999 4:03:00 PM
From: American Spirit  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 29970
 
The next 5 days? Depends on how nets do as a group. Will they become a favored sector again that soon? Maybe. They are certainly priced reasonably now. But since BKS's IPO is due to be out a week from Monday I'd say that's the surest best out there for the next 5 days. Unless the IPO gets pushed back BKS will certainly fly this week. ATHM will fly when the nets fly as a group. Pick the bottom. That's the challenge. Might be the bottom now. Certainly felt like a selling climax on Friday. That's usually the signal for a big bounce-back. But we could have a little more deterioration. A little more not much. This is simply too popular a stock to stagnate for long.



To: Craig Rogers who wrote (8139)4/18/1999 8:22:00 PM
From: FR1  Respond to of 29970
 
Any thoughts on this prediction for ATHM in the next 5 days?

IMHO
I keep a long list of net stocks and follow them. What is happening now is a carbon copy of what happened at the last earnings time and it will probably repeat on the next one.

Basically, net stocks have a lot of emotion in them and there is a big run up going into earnings. The last day for a big spike up in prices was the first day of the first week when a large number of earnings reports were due for net stocks (week of Jan 11 last time and April 12 this time). Then the bears come in and really slam the nets hard for the rest of the week. They really don't care what the earnings numbers will be because the stocks are so overvalued that earnings won't make any difference (ok, unless somebody declares bankruptcy or reports absolutely astounding results). They eventually want to bring everybody down 30-50%.

If this time follows last time, the next week will start with some relief for 2-3 days and then another slam for 2 days and then the worst is over. Good stocks will then recover and by the middle of the next month be screaming up again.

I hope we don't have another leg down but so far everything has happened on exactly the same day. It will be fun to watch - no danger for the longs (unless you are deep into margin). Full recovery by mid May.

It does make sense if you think about it. You are a fund manager and have a zillion dollars at your disposal. On the one hand you have to stay invested in nets because that is where all the profit is. On the other hand, the nets will never be able to report earnings that justify the gains. Therefore, no need to wait (unless you like pain). Sell off now and buy back after earnings.

I saw it coming and sold off everything except ATHM. I sold 2 days too early (chickened out) and was surprised at how much could be made in 2 days. The problem is, if the sell off day is a day or so earlier than you expect then you will watch CMGI drop by 40+ points in a matter of minutes. You won't even get your gun out of the holster.

I don't know if I did the right thing with ATHM. If you sell $100K of stock and the stock comes back, which it will, then at the end of the year Uncle Sam hits you for taxes on $100K. The guy who did not sell has zero taxes. On the other hand, if you sell and buy back at the right time (either tomorrow or, cross your fingers, friday) then you make whatever that tax money is back and have more stock. However, you have now taken on the title of Witch Doctor Trader and hope that everything is happens just like last time. If you miss you can't buy back the number of shares you had before.



To: Craig Rogers who wrote (8139)4/18/1999 10:40:00 PM
From: Educator  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 29970
 
Any thoughts on this prediction for ATHM in the next 5 days?

Craig- You've had several people respond to this question, but I thought I would still add my two cents. I liked Franz's analysis and believe there is truth what he says. The Internet stocks have been the darlings, and I don't believe they have been forgotten. Investors will be loading up again, especially with those that have promise like ATHM. If you are looking to add to your ATHM position, you might want to closely watch ATHM to see if it has bottomed. If I saw it jump five to ten points and sustain that drive throughout the day, I would hop on.

I am very strange when it comes to stocks. I rarely make limit trades. I decide I want a stock, look at the current price and buy it. I don't mess around. I also do not short stocks or day trade. I was left behind by too many good stocks. My pride wouldn't allow me to buy the stock again at a much higher price when I sold far too early. I am not making that mistake with ATHM. It was tempting to sell ATHM in the 190s, and disappointing to see it fall back to the 140s. I just keep telling myself that it was JUST IN THE 140s a few weeks ago, and how elated I was at that time! Why should now be any different? Its run-up was just so fast and surprising. Even though I thought the potential was there for a surge, I was still overwhelmed when it happened. It will soon be back, IMHO.

What we need for ATHM is an upturn in the Net stocks, or some positive news on ATHM. Contracts with another country like Japan would be favorable. The Street also likes to see ATHM strike a noteworthy business relationship. I am looking for something to come along and spark ATHM again. A merger of some sort with RR would do nicely. It would really set fire to ATHM stock price. If ATHM finally came to some beneficial agreement with AOL, look out. ATHM would be blistering hot. That is not the day I would like to be sitting on the sidelines waiting to see double digit ATHM numbers.

The word of ATHM is spreading. Like gossip, it was started by just one person. Soon the neighborhood heard about ATHM. Next the city, state, and country. In my community, few know about ATHM. I am doing all I can to spread the word. Soon, like AOL, most People will be aware of ATHM and hopefully use their service.

I just dozed at the computer and think it's time for bed.

Good night all. Tomorrow will be a brighter day.

Ed