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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (42526)	4/18/1999 1:24:00 PM
From: Rob Shilling	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 95453

--- The "sector rotation" IMHO is the beginning of a big move to oil and cyclicals. The "gurus" that say it is temporary or a blip seem to believe that the world only needs microprocessors and webpages. I would like to see them try to run autos with megabytes instead of gasoline!! --- The "world financial system" IMHO is U.S. centric. I think this is a flaw that has already caused major problems such as the emerging markets being bascially sucked dry of money last year. A book could be written here, but let me focus on crude oil. The media and the financial "gurus" seem trained to demigog oil prices and OPEC in some sort of constant orchestrated campaign on behalf of the U.S.'s best interests to keep oil prices low. I don't know if it is orchestrated or just bad reporting, but even this weeks Business Week had an ariticle about why OPEC will fail. It is very interesting that the "market" wanted to see another 1 mbpd taken of the oil market, and OPEC trumped their call will over 2 mbpd, and there are still articles about how OPEC will fail even though their compliance is usually way over 50%. --- If one thinks Simmons and Rainwater are even slightly on the mark, we are not only due for higher oil prices, we may be due for an extended period of time (maybe permanent) of oil prices that are well above $20 a barrel. The drilling industry may become a much more steady performer in terms of earnings and revenues in the years to come. IMHO, every industry eventually goes through a transition and the oil industry looks to be changing dramatically. --- <slightly OT> I own some drillers, but I also have some money in what I think is the most leveraged bet on oil, Russia. I have seen some others talk about Russia here. Russia problems economically came basically from the super low oil prices of 1998. The biggest oil company in Russia is Lukoil(LUKOY). It has more oil reserves than any of the publically traded majors (and could be getting even bigger with new finds and mergers this year). Yet, LUKOY is trading at only a $5 billion market cap or about 25% sales (and the sales are growing fast) and 1/20 of other international majors. That spells leverage in a big way.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (42526)	4/18/1999 2:50:00 PM
From: Gary Burton	Respond to of 95453

O/T--Need some insight on internet discount brokers--I still use a full service firm who gives me fast execution plus daily fax of Cowen,BS and DLJ notes. I'm curently getting 50% discount on their posted rates and the result is I'm paying on average US12.3c to buy and another US12.3 to sell. Internet route available to me (not US) on U.S stocks is US3c to buy and US3c to sell...The US9.3c differential per trade adds up to me over the course of a year but I am wary of using the internet route as I suspect the 'real' all in cost is higher because of slower execution time...some background..I only put in limit orders, about half the time i change them in the course of the trading day, I get real time bid/ask/last/vol/prev trades info on my computer at home just as if i was in a Merrill office, I often call in an order when execution time is quite important-I watch the bid and ask second by second on a stock I'm interested in buying or selling and tend to pick up the phone when I sense buying or selling pressure building up near where I want to deal. I can almost always get my order on its way to the floor within 15 secs from the time i decide to pick up the phone since they answer right away and the sales ass't can enter my spoken order in a 'heartbeat' since she does this all day long for clients.,, I suspect the internet route would be slower as first there would be the time to open the internet web page then more time for me to manually fill out all the necessary data on my order--with the result that i may lose on execution, given my tendency to place orders only when I sense the bid/ask may soon change....Does anyone here using full service brokers get more than a 50% discount?...Am I correct in my waryness of losing execution time via the internet route (opening pages,entering data etc)? Many thanks