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Biotech / Medical : XOMA. Bull or Bear? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: aknahow who wrote (9678)	4/18/1999 5:05:00 PM
From: Robert K.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17367

Lets assume one patient accrues into meningo every 5 days. Lets also assume a placebo death rate of 20%. If bpi had a zero death rate (which I doubt) then it would take 10 patients before one would expect 1 death. Five times 10 = 50 days for 1 death. If bpi death rate was also 20% (which I doubt) then its 25 days per death. Sooooo, if they were waiting on just one more death it could take 25 to 50 days to occur. I dont think anyone wants to miss 1999-2000 meningo season if this drug works.(big if). What are the chances the trial may end before the prespecified number? What are the chances they will say "ok lets look at 350 retro"? Probably slim to nil, but who knows? Just thinking outloud. Standard K.