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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (4576)	4/18/1999 10:47:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 15132

Brian: Re: "You could have made the exact comparison between COMS and CSCO two years ago. CSCO was priced at a premium and still beat estimates while COMS has suffered ever since the USRX acquisition. CSCO has increased 4-fold(??) since then while COMS has hit a new 2 year low recently." Sure but the comparison falls short when one considers that the semiconductor capital equipment cycle is unique and that different equipment is in demand at different times. SFAM has a good CMP product in memory oxide. The capacity orders have yet to role in at this point. Techology CMP orders are what has been going on the books. IPEC has a good metal portfolio and an edge in copper IMO. Re: " Installed base means very little if AMAT wants to aggressively pursue this market." Installed base means that SFAM has its foot in the door with many companies and that it will at least be a secondary source if not better. Installed base also means that SFAM has the infrastructure to support that base already. And just because AMAT wants to pursue a market aggressively does not mean SFAM will sit still. SFAM will compete. SFAM does not have to win the war. It just has to get a fair share of the market to be a profitable investment. And at this level of valuation given its risk/ reward, it is very attractive indeed. Re: "The battle does not necessarily go to the strong nor the race to the swift, but that is the way to bet." Probabilities are that AMAT win the war but SFAM will win its fair share of battles and will be a profitable investment nonetheless. If you are a buy and holder, AMAT is the way to go. But there are plenty of other ways to make money in this sector and SFAM is one of them IMO. One can bet on SFAM and AMAT and make money in both. Right now there is more money to be made in SFAM IMO.