To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (32077 ) 4/18/1999 4:20:00 PM From: goldsnow Respond to of 116779
Dollar May Rise to Record Against Euro as Fighting in Yugoslavia Continues Dollar Seen Gaining Against Euro, Falling vs Yen (Repeat) (Repeats story from April 16.) New York, April 18 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may climb to new highs against the euro this week on speculation fighting in Yugoslavia will drag on, further burdening Europe's already sluggish economies. International investors shifting money from Europe to Japan and other Asian countries -- where stock markets are rallying on optimism the region is in recovery -- will also undermine the euro, traders and investors said. The single currency touched a new low of $1.0632 Friday. ''We have investors dumping Europe in favor of Asia,'' said Eric Nickerson, a currency strategist at BankAmerica Corp, who predicts the euro will fall to $1.0550 this week. ''I don't see anything supportive of euro on the horizon.'' For the week, the dollar rose 0.9 percent against the euro, which in late New York trading was at $1.0702. The dollar fell to 117.84 yen Friday for a 2.6 percent drop last week. This week, the U.S. currency will likely extend its slide against the yen after Finance Minister Kiichi Miyazawa Friday said the government may consider a tax cut on investments which could have a ''quick impact'' on the economy. Increased demand for Japanese stocks from international investors and indications Japanese life insurers will cut back on holdings of foreign bonds will also support the yen. ''We'll head toward 115 (yen) this week,'' said Kathy Jones, a currency strategist at Prudential Securities. ''We've seen a lot of foreign interest'' in Japanese stocks. Asian stock markets have outperformed those in Europe. So far this year, Japan's Nikkei 225 Index is up 22 percent while Germany's benchmark DAX Index has climbed 3 percent. Structural Problems Many traders and investors are still bearish on European economies even after the European Central Bank cut its benchmark interest rate 50 basis points earlier this month to 2.5 percent. Governments need to take steps to correct Europe's structural problems, such as high unemployment and confusing tax regimes, before the euro can rally, they say. ''This is not a problem that can be fixed with monetary policy,'' said Joe Cambria, head of spot trading at Credit Suisse First Boston. ''It's a structural problem. We'll see euro parity (with the dollar) some time this year.'' European union finance ministers, who met in Dresden yesterday, renewed their commitment to tight budgets. Governments should get back on track with deficit-reduction to send a ''message of confidence'' in the single currency, said Monetary Affairs Commissioner Yves-Thibault de Silguy. ''We expect a strong message,'' he added. War in Kosovo threatens to rattle European growth and depress demand for goods from the 11 euro nations, analysts said. Budgets may have to stretch even further to pay for the military operations against Yugoslavia and for aid to refugees. NATO's air campaign has boosted the alliance's military spending by about $50 million a day, defense analysts said. The United Nations estimates the total number of refugees now in Albania, Macedonia and Montenegro at 534,200. Another ''500,000 to 700,000'' ethnic Albanians are refugees within Kosovo, hiding in mountains or forests, according to U.S. defense officials. ''This looks set to be a fairly drawn-out affair that will not only be costly to European governments, but one that could destabilize Eastern Europe as a whole,'' said James McKay, global markets strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in London. ''We see little reason to be optimistic on the euro.'' Euro-Yen The euro will also suffer against the yen because of the shift from European financial assets to Asian markets, analysts predict. The euro dropped 3.5 percent last week to 126.11 yen. Many euro-yen trades go through the dollar, with traders selling euros for dollars and then selling those dollars for yen. That helps explain the dollar's rise against the euro and drop against the yen. ''The euro is weakening and the yen is strengthening, and the dollar's stuck in the middle,'' said BankAmerica's Nickerson. The yen could also gain because the Bank of Japan isn't increasing the amount of money supply as much as it suggested it would in previous months, several analysts said. Under such a strategy, called ''quantitative easing,'' the central bank would pump trillions of yen into the banking system to keep borrowing rates near zero and inflate the economy. Money Supply Growth ''It comes down to supply and demand,'' said Prudential's Jones. ''We all assumed the supply of yen would increase dramatically. But we haven't seen it in the data.'' Money supply grew at a 3.7 percent rate in March from a year ago, according to the most recent figures. Jones said she'd like to see money supply growth closer to 5 percent. Minutes from recent Bank of Japan board meetings show disagreement among policy-makers over this strategy. Nobuyuki Nakahara, a board member and former president of oil refiner Tonen Corp., has proposed boosting the money supply aggressively. He's been voted down by other board members on concern that such a move might lead to high inflation and put pressure on the central bank to underwrite bonds directly from the government. ''We'll see further yen strength until they get serious about'' quantitative easing, said CSFB's Cambria. ''You could see 115 this week.'' ©1999 Bloomberg L.P. All rights reserved. Terms of Service, Privacy Policy and Trademarks.