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Non-Tech : Iomega Thread without Iomega -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Reseller who wrote (9209)	4/18/1999 8:49:00 PM
From: David Colvin	Respond to of 10072

Reseller, The total income between Michael's, Dave's and Ken's estimates are between 1.699 to 2.019 billion in sales, I doubt that any had factored in 170 to 200 million in sales for Clik!. Ken's original prediction called for Clik! revenues of $130 million in 1999 and $600 million in 2000. In all fairness, this estimate was probably a close to "best case" scenario and wasn't what he really thought was going to happen. www3.techstocks.com After rethinking his numbers, his revised predictions called for Clik! revenues of $71 million in 1999 and $222 million in 2000. This time he said he was "calling it like he saw it", and was the bar by which he was willing to be measured. www3.techstocks.com Neither Michael or I specifically addressed Clik! yearly revenues for either 1999 or 2000. Some random thoughts on the Clik! drive issue: Just a wild guess on my part because I have no idea how much Iomega will get for an average Clik! drive, but if Iomega were to sell an average drive for, say, $125, they would have to sell over 1.36 million drives during 1999 to generate $170 million in revenue for just the Clik! drive. Any less than $125 revenue per drive, of course, would simply require the sale of an even greater number of drives. Let's see....they already sold 24,000 drives in Q1 1999, so if my "wild guess" is right ($125 per drive) that would require the sale of another 1.34 million drives during the remainder of 1999. Looking at it this way it sure seems doable to me if they can create the demand. But wait! Another thing to consider is their are no Clik! disk sales included in my "imaginary" straw man numbers above. I suppose Jodie's assertion that 10% of all 1999 revenues would come from Clik! sales meant sales related to the entire Clik! line (drives and disks). When viewed this way it seems even more doable to me. Dave

To: Reseller who wrote (9209)	4/18/1999 9:06:00 PM
From: Rocky Reid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10072

There is no way in Hell that Clik will come anywhere near 10% of Iomega's revenue. This pipe-dream (one that Iomaniacs immediately took to heart) was mentioned to in the recent Conference Call as a wish by Iomega Management. Now, some Iomaniacs take it to heart as if it is written in stone. Amazing. I have been tracking Flop! sales myself the last few weeks, and larger deliveries have been showing up recently. But you know what? These inventories have basically been just sitting there collecting dust comparatively. This goes for drives as well as disks. Sales of Flop! are just terrible. It's developing exactly as I said. I have been saying all along that Flop! would sell initially well to Iomega Investors and a few tech-heads. Then....nothing. Flop!'s turning out exactly like I said. Zip was a boom right from the start. Flop! is the opposite, and time is running out.

To: Reseller who wrote (9209)	4/18/1999 10:34:00 PM
From: Michael Coley	Respond to of 10072

RE: Clik! Contribution to 1999 Revenues? >> The total income between Michael's, Dave's and Ken's estimates are between 1.699 to 2.019 billion in sales, I doubt that any had factored in 170 to 200 million in sales for Clik!. << I had factored in $110 million for Clik! sales in 1999. It could be more, but I'm not banking on it. I will be adjusting my model sometime before the end of the quarter. The only thing I'm not sure about is Jaz. It's very unclear whether this is a permanent situation (in which case it will just get worse--like Ditto did) or temporary situation (in which case it'll bounce back). I'm leaning towards a permanent situation. The high-end market is very limited, and there are many other options available. - Michael Coley - bible-reading.com