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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DAVID who wrote (20763)	4/18/1999 4:43:00 PM
From: VLAD	Respond to of 23519

DAVID, WAKE UP! Vivus said at the last conference call that they were unable to give any earnings guidance. Why? Because there are two many variables that can create much variability on the earnings front. We already know that Q1 1999 will show a 12 cent profit with domestic product sales at an all time low and international product sales significantly decreases thanks to the delay in the European launch. In Q2 1999 you can expect domestic sales to IMPROVE EVEN WITHOUT A DOMESTIC MARKETING ARM!! Why? Because Very soon, Pfizer/FDA will have to issue a one year report on Viagra detailing all of the reported fatalities and adverse effects and I don't think it is going to paint a very "pretty" picture for Viagra. Certainly international sales will improve dramatically as Astra/Zeneca launches MUSE to the European union countries. If England can be used as an example of how well AstraZeneca can market/sell MUSE in the same market where Viagra is available then sales should be very good. It will be interesting to know if A/Z is going to launch MUSE in Europe in the beginning or end of May--it can make a big difference on international product orders to Vivus. DaiS--can you call AZ HQs and get an answer on that one??? Then we have the still unanswered Japan and USA partner issue. I think we may have some answers next Wed. Now look at Q3 1999. Janssen will get CHINA approval which includes another $2M milestone payment and opens up the most populated nation in the world. It is estimated that the Chinese spend over 1 BILLION DOLLARS annually on medicines designed to be "sexual aids". And by then MUSE will be marketed/sold in full force by A/Z in Europe. I wont even begin to speculate on Q4 1999 income potential. I think what you call "analysts estimates" means that the only "analyst" actively covering Vivus ie Charlie O has yet to sit down with Vivus to make a real analysis of Q2-Q4 earnings income potential. Wait until a bit after Wed's CC to see what types of revisions he may makes after going over Q1 info and the CC.