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Strategies & Market Trends : Jim's Nasdaq100 Special as a basket. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Monty Lenard who wrote (408)	4/18/1999 10:08:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2103

Monty; I found my old work sheet and it will be interesting to see how things have changed. It looks like you helped me with that one too. I finished my work on it DEC 30th, but think the Data was from a few days ahead of that. I made some small errors at the time and just caught them & one big error. To get the New components and weights I'll have to down load from the AMEX. ( there are some changes due to mergers, and by now the caps have changed some ) BUT the head/tail is noticeable in them May as well forget the sector names for most of them as they are not pure sector plays at all, except for the XLK and XLF the XLE is not too bad, but crap like Walmart being in Transportation's abounds a plenty in most of the others. Miners mixed with Chemicals, Telcos with utilities so there is not much of a way to call most of them Sector baskets, except XLF , XLK and maybe XLE.. However we can rate them BIG MEDIUM & SMALL cap AND that was what I was primarily after ! They did not get good average weight relative to the S&P weight for the stocks in them, Except XLF & XLU them two hit about mid stream for average S&P weight. MIDSTREAM is ( or was ) 17.5B cap for the S&P stocks -------------------------------- Here are some Notes I made ..XLB, XLI both definitely lean toward small cap average cap 5.5B , 5.6B now you know why they are flying right now..but look out we may have missed most of that run I wasn't on the ball. XLY & XLV is small to mid 11.6 & 11.4 B -------------------- XLF - XLU fall in the middle 16.5 & 17.7 B XLE is MID to large 20.5B --------------- XLK and XLP are the Large cap 28.2b & 30.95B -------------- The storm WATCH flag is flying, & may soon go to full warning The high pressure of the war could push her away, or if a low in CREEMSPAM develops it could suck her away, how ever if that turns to a high ( a rate increase ) you can bet it will push the storm in but so far I don't see the storm even if it hits as a full blown Gale not yet anyway. Jim PS quicken.excite.com XLB & XLI are flying up ( THEY ARE THE SMALLEST , the TAIL so to speak , IF XLK and XLP can't get up and fast when these start down a small panic could hit..as they are what has kept the S&P from falling more than it has..them and XLE , we need NEW money fast, this rotation can't last without it & the more they go up aginst the main stream the harder the fall will be. ------------- quicken.excite.com Too many headed down, a lot of money came off the table , if it don't get back on the table the stocks in XLI & XLB are to thinly traded to get profits out if the market falls, however they may not care ( big money ) could be tossing some money at them to keep panic from setting in right now as they ease back on the Big caps, fully knowing that when they dump the others every thing will fall like a brick and then they come back into XLP..and XLK maybe even XLU , XLE may dip but she has the best long term outlook for now thanks to the war. I bet we will get a rate hike the next time velvet jaws gets a chance. Jim